Week 4 Picks: Donovan McNabb Returns to a Vick Storm

Donovan McNabb is back in the Philly spotlight for the first time since Easter Sunday.

For the many people who couldn’t stand him laughing after another inaccurate pass, his return is ample booing opportunity. For the many others who appreciated him and didn’t want to see him go, it’s also ample booing opportunity — albeit directed at Andy Reid. (In all seriousness, McNabb should receive a standing ovation from the Linc faithful — with of course a booing bass line.) My prevailing feeling is one of awkwardness. I knew the time had come to move him, but that doesn’t mean that it made me happy to hear he was traded. You see to me, McNabb was the savior.

After years searching for a franchise quarterback — starting with Randall Cunningham’s slow decay, Bubby Brister’s uncanny ability to almost win, Rodney Peete’s ability to barely win, the spunky Detmers (Ty and Koy), the corpse of Bobby Hoying, and the over-matched Doug Pederson — McNabb’s emergence in 2000 sparked the greatest Super Bowl run in franchise history. Of course there are no Lombardi Trophies in the Nova Care Complex, but that’s not to say that we Eagles fans were ever truly unhappy during the McNabb Era. Just think of all the unforgettable moments that took place during McNabb’s Eagle tenure:

• Pickle Juice Game blowout victory against Dallas in the 2000 opener
• The “I’ve arrived” 100-yard rushing performance over Washington late in 2000
• A heart-stopping victory over the Giants at the Vet to clinch the 2001 NFC East title
• Back-to-back Wildcard victories over Tampa Bay in ‘00 and ‘01
• Four touchdown passes on a broken ankle against Arizona in 2002
• 4th and 26 to Fred Ex in an instant classic Divisional Playoff against Green Bay
• The entire 2004 season
• His MVP-like start to the 2006 season, including a thrilling 38-24 victory over Terrell Owens and the Cowboys.
• That surprising run to the 2008 NFC Championship Game.

The problem with that list is that almost all of those great moments took place before the disastrous ‘05 season, which saw the Eagles upward trend, presumably to Super Bowl Champion, finally stopped. For whatever reason — the groin and ACL injuries, the T.O. disaster which undermined his leadership, Jeff Garcia’s electric run to the 2006 division title, or the drafting of Kevin Kolb — that early decade magic that always led to a deep playoff run had vanished. Once a tremendous redzone team, the Eagles offense began to have serious trouble scoring touchdowns inside the 20s. So too went their ability to win close games or win coming-from-behind late in games. Gradually the rest of the NFC East caught up and, in some cases, surpassed the Eagles for the first time since McNabb’s rookie year. A change had to be made, and Kolb was set to take over the keys to the young and exciting Eagles offense… or so we thought.

Michael Vick Rises from the Ashes

One prodigal son leaves, but not before recruiting another prodigal son in his stead. You know the story, but how far does it go? Is Vick a mirage, playing against sub-par pass defenses in Detroit and Jacksonville might have inflated his passing ability. Or is Vick the second coming of Steve Young — as I’ve said several times — or the “black Norm Van Brocklin” — as my dad put it? Hard to say, but the fact that we’re considering it should suffice for now.

Vick can’t control how poorly the other teams are on the schedule, but he has to take advantage of it. Thus far, he hasn’t disappointed in the least. Even behind a piss-poor offensive line, Vick has amassed a passer rating over 110 this season — don’t forget that half-game against the Packers defense — and is exactly what the Doctor ordered for an Eagles team searching for an identity Post-Brian Dawkins and Post-Donovan McNabb.

Last week, I was planning on writing a column wholeheartedly endorsing Andy Reid’s decision to start Michael Vick for the remainder of the season. Somewhere between the eight million or so other Vick columns that were being written, I lost interest. Who really wanted to read another opinion regarding the decision to sit Kolb or Big Red’s John Kerry-inspired flip-flop from Kolb to Vick in a 48-hour period? So check out what other sports writers are saying:

• Rich Hoffman wrote that the Eagles offensive line would have trouble protecting Kolb before criticizing Reid for making the change to Vick.
• Sam Donnellon compared Charlie Manuel’s decision to stick with Lidge with Reid’s demotion of Kolb.
• Ray Didinger said that Reid dealt Kolb the worst hit, but changed his mind after reviewing game film with Brian “Diagonal Fingers” Baldinger when he saw how thoroughly Vick dominated the Lions.
• Paul Domowitch thinks o-line prompted the move to Vick before talking about who holds the advantage, Donovan or the Eagles.
• Les Bowen tackles the touchy subject of Vick and racism.
• Matt Mosley thought that Reid made a knee-jerk decision.
• The professor, John Clayton, called Reid’s decision to start Vick a mistake.
• Jay Glazer, on Vick in his FoxSports.com chat: “I honestly and truly believe the penal system worked in this case. I really do. I hated what he did and he has told me he constantly reflects on this path in life and those horrible decisions he made. Told me after the Lions game he actually went home that night and thought about it all, regretting he took this path.”

To me, the real losers of this whole situation (other than Kolb) were the members of the Philly media. Like a pack of vultures, several writers (some with a solid track record of thinking before writing) came at Reid scathingly from both sides of the argument. Everyone, especially a columnist, is welcome to an opinion, but giving Reid guff from both sides of the argument is a bit much. Personally, I think a lot of the beat writers don’t like Reid, something my dad and I talk about a lot. After years of getting minimal answers and snide remarks from him for several press conferences a week, some of the Eagles beat writers were probably chomping at the bit when Reid embarrassingly contracted himself this past week.

So I would take a lot of what’s said about Reid and the Eagles organization with a grain of salt. Sports writers are human, and they might just be a bit biased in this town against everyone on Team Gold Standard.

What About Kolb?

Kevin Kolb is in his mid-20s. He played high school football in Texas and spent his first three seasons in the NFL with a bird’s-eye view of the mountain of criticism McNabb faced week in and week out. Something tells me that he knew trouble was headed his way as the starting quarterback in Philadelphia. If anyone can handle it, Kolb can.

While suffering a public demotion can’t feel good for anyone, I’m pretty sure that losing his starting job to Michael Vick, a former number one overall draft pick with a Michael Jordan-like talent, is not something that will doom him for all of eternity. With apologies to the Inquirer’s John Gonzalez, reports of Kevin Kolb’s demise are premature. A quick glance around at some of the NFL’s quarterback situations tells me that Kolb shouldn’t be without a starter’s job for long if the Eagles decide to make a long term commitment to Vick.

Another problem with the poor Kevin Kolb argument: what about Donovan McNabb? Who would have thought that eight fewer NFL seasons and five fewer NFC Championship Game appearances would warrant a greater public outcry after being demoted. I don’t remember as many people saying that Donovan didn’t get a fair shake or that we should give him the benefit of the doubt over an unknown young signal-caller after two decent games. Here we have Vick — a much more proven commodity than Kolb was after two good starts in the 2009 season — given the job after two weeks of play, and suddenly we must have some continuity at quarterback after (GOSH!) one offseason’s worth of practices. Of all the arguments to keep Kolb in as the starter, this makes the least sense. That’s just one person’s opinion…

Anyway, on to the week four picks.

(Home team in CAPS. Week One Results: 4-12.)

TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Denver

Maybe Tom Coughlin thinks that his Giants are better than the Titans, even though the scoreboard — basically judge and jury in this case — clearly disagreed. I do think that Jeff Fisher’s bunch is a touchdown better than the Broncos. Coughlin thought that Tennessee won by provoking several players into personal foul penalties, which helped to offset Eli Manning’s near-400 yard passing performance. I say that getting a team off its game is a skill. Look at the NHL, where goons like Dale Murphy, Tie Domi and Matthew Barnaby (that jerk) made a very good living doing just that. In fact, each team in the NHL has its own thorn-in-the-side-of-the-other-team guy. So maybe Tennessee has 53 of them. Whatever. Time to quit crying, Tom, because this Tennessee team is for real.

Let’s talk a bit about Orton. While Jay Cutler has led the Bears to three straight wins to start the season, the man he was traded for has been a disappointment. Orton is second in the NFL in passing yards (1,078), seventh in passer rating (97.4), and eighth in completion percentage (66.4 percent). Even Cutler’s slightly better numbers have put his team in a better position, you’ve got to give the edge in this trade to Denver. After all, Cutler isn’t outperforming Orton enough to overshadow the two first round draft picks (as well as a third rounder) that Chicago sent in the deal — provided Josh McDaniels doesn’t draft another third round-talent (hello, Tim Tebow) in the first round again.

Of course if Cutler leads Chicago to a deep playoff run and Orton is scheduling tee times in January (hopefully somewhere warm), Bears fans won’t mind what McDaniels does with those draft picks.

PITTSBURGH (-1.5) over Baltimore

The way Pittsburgh’s defense has dominated with a healthy Troy Polamalu back in the fold, you can’t pick against the Steelers right now. I’m feeling so good about Pittsburgh that I’m even wondering if New Orleans would have had a different opponent in the Super Bowl if Polamalu never injured himself on opening night last season. So, no, I don’t think that Joe Flacco can handle the pressure and avoid any costly turnovers with the likely Defensive Player of the Year in Polamalu patrolling the middle of the field.

Give credit to Peter King for predicting a Super Bowl championship from Pittsburgh, despite the Ben Roethlisberger suspension. That pick looks better and better each week.

Cincinnati (-3) over CLEVELAND

This one reeks of upset:

• Intrastate division rivals
• Cleveland’s been in every game this year
• Carson Palmer looks like A.J. Feeley.

That said, I’m leaning towards the Bengals with this pick for one reason: the Cincinnati defense is very good. Marvin Lewis has assembled a defense that is capable of winning a game all by itself some weeks — much less one where the opposing quarterback depth chart has Seneca Wallace, Jake Delhomme and Colt McCoy and a banged up Jerome Harrison as well. Feed Cedric Benson to milk the clock and play Bengals defense, and there’s probably nothing that the Browns can do about it.

GREEN BAY (-14.5) over Detroit

This is a bad week to be a Detroit Lion. The way Green Bay gave away the game to the Bears on Monday night, I’m expecting them to come out firing on all cylinders at home. Plus Aaron Rodgers and his receiving corps should have a field day with that Lions pass defense. For those concerned about the Packers having a short week of practice: Short week my ass! Detroit would need the Packers to have played the night before this Sunday’s game to prevent a blowout loss in Green Bay.

NEW ORLEANS (-13.5) over Carolina

So much for the Panthers as a playoff team. Evil twin Matt Moore (how else do we explain how much he sucks this year) wet the bed and has been replaced by Jimmy Clausen. So naturally I’m expecting New Orleans to make mince-meat of Carolina. As the Sportsguy said in his podcast with Cousin Sal, this line can’t be big enough. Like I do with the Packers, I’m expecting a good game from the Saints after suffering their first loss of the year last week due to their own mistakes — namely a shanked chip shot field goal in overtime. For everyone that’s handing the NFC South to the Falcons, might want to hang your hat on a victory that didn’t come after a missed 29-yard field goal in overtime.

Luckily, though, for Clausen, Notre Dame provided him plenty of experience in losing, so he’ll be able to take a 2-14 season in stride. You’ve really got to hand it to Notre Dame for its commitment to education. Now if only his passes found his receivers in stride…

ATLANTA (-7) over San Francisco

When in doubt, pick against the NFC West. Pretty simple. Of course, Atlanta is ripe for a let-down loss after last week’s heart-stopping victory in the Big Easy, and San Francisco is due for a victory. This could be an upset special in the making, but I’m not going to have another 3-13 week (like my Week One picks… ugh). I am NOT picking an NFC West team to travel cross-country and defeat a superior team.

Seattle (-1) over ST. LOUIS

I don’t know what to think about Seattle. With two impressive victories — a Week One throttling of the Niners, and the Week Three upset of the Chargers — and a lop-sided Week Two loss to the Broncos (1-2), what gives? Just know that after three weeks, Pete Carroll has his Seahawks tied for first in the NFC West with the Cardinals — whose two victories have come against the Raiders and Rams. Any other division, and Carroll might be getting some early Coach of the Year talk. Any other division…

Meanwhile, the Rams got their annual victory over the Redskins last week and are threatening to climb out of the NFL’s cellar. A win here over their division rival could give them a share of first place. Just another week in the NFC West.

Jets (-5.5) over BUFFALO

Ryan Fitzpatrick against Rex Ryan’s defense. Even without Darrell Revis, that has to be good for at least a touchdown difference. Speaking of mediocre quarterbacks, the Sanchise is starting to pack his bags for Good Quarterbackville. I know it’s still early, but with Braylon Edwards steady hands of late and Santonio Holmes set to rejoin the team, Mark Sanchez might be finally giving Jets fans a real reason to feel Super about this team.

BTW: Fitzpatrick + Trent Edwards < Vick. Think the Buffalo front office is kicking themselves for not making a play for Vick?

Colts (-7.5) over JACKSONVILLE

Having watched Vick torch the Jaguars last week, I think Peyton Manning will do just fine. Even if the Maurice Jones-Drew runs all over Indianapolis, David Garrard is still the opposing quarterback. I think that means the Colts will blow out Jacksonville.

Houston (-3) over OAKLAND

Anyone who thinks that Texans aren’t a field goal better than Oakland is either insane or can predict huge NFL upsets with Nostradamus-like accuracy.

SAN DIEGO (-8) over Arizona

Unless the Cardinals return two kicks for touchdowns, I think the Chargers should be able to cover. The only question heading into this game is whether or not San Diego sells out this game. In case you didn’t know, the Chargers’ home opener wasn’t sold out, so the NFL blacked it out in America’s Finest City. Blackouts are expected for perennial losers, but 4-time division champs? Between the lack of support for the Padres and Chargers, I’m starting to think that the Chargers might soon be calling Los Angeles their home. With the prospects of new stadium near downtown San Diego thin, and a possible state-of-the-art facility looming on the horizon in L.A., why not move the team two hours north? This way you can keep your San Diego fan base somewhat close, while simultaneously monopolizing the rest of Southern California.

Maybe then the Chargers could afford to pay their star wide receivers…

Washington (+6) covers against PHILLY

This game has close written all over it. Maybe it’s because I’m an Eagles fan, but facing Donovan McNabb in another uniform scares the be-jesus out of me. He knows both our offensive and defensive systems in and out, and he’s playing for a division foe that’s given Philly some trouble the past few season. That said, I didn’t lead this column with a nod to Michael Vick just to pick against him. His presence alone has taken the Eagles sub-par redzone offense and turned it into the league’s best. The Redskins, on the other hand, acquired McNabb’s redzone troubles as well in that Easter trade. That will be the difference in this one because the Redskins will be bringing field goals to a touchdown fight.

Chicago (+4) over GIANTS

This looks a lot like a trap game for Chicago. I agree with Coughlin that the Giants were not as bad as their 29-10 loss last week to Tennessee might indicated — though they were not better than the Titans — and something tells me that New York might come out and play well on Sunday Night. Eli Manning will probably not throw another left-handed pass the rest of his career, so there’s always that.

This pick reflects my personal views on the growth of Cutler. Last year, he spent much of the season forcing the ball into extremely tight coverage and finished with 26 interceptions. It all seemed to crescendo on him on his disastrous five-pick game on Thursday Night game against the Niners, which I wrote about at the time. The next time I watched Cutler play was in Chicago’s Monday Night Football game against Minnesota, where Cutler won with a game-winning touchdown pass in overtime — which at the time rocked my world because that gave the Eagles the inside shot at the second seed in the NFC playoffs before the Double Dallas Debacle. There was a different, more efficient Cutler in that latest game. He looked like a quarterback that you might give up three high picks and your incumbent starter in a trade. Flash forward to Week Four and efficient Cutler is still playing well.

The Giants are not playing well, so that should be enough for Da Bears to upset Big Blue.

MIAMI (+1) over New England

Something is rotten in the state of Massachusetts. I felt it before the season when I picked the Patriots to miss the playoffs, and I feel it now after a poor two week stretch that included a 14-point loss to the Jets and a narrow victory over the hapless Bills. Randy Moss is depressed, glue-man Kevin Faulk is out for the year with an ACL injury, Wes Welker is not yet a year removed from his own ACL surgery, the defense looks suspect, and Tom Brady is more model now than quarterback. Darth Brady, under the controls of the vile Emperor Giselle, has gone from greatest ever (before Super Bowl XLII) to second-tier. Not good. And remember how past New England teams seemingly overachieved and “wanted it” more than anyone else? Mike Vrabel, Teddy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, and Richard Seymour are all now past-Patriots. Who is going to spark the team now?

One team’s misfortune is another’s gain, and Miami now stands in the same league as the once-dominant Patriots. I say that hoping that Ricky Williams puts some stick ‘em on his hands. Seriously, when did he suddenly develop Adrian Peterson hands? I don’t know who I would trust more to hold on to the pigskin, Williams or Snooki. Regardless, Williams better fix his ball-security issues because the Dolphins are going to need both him and Brown so that Chad Henne isn’t left in too many obvious passing situations. Give Bill Belichick an edge and he’ll take advantage, even with this Patriots defense.

So there you have it. After picking the first 11 favorites to cover the spread, I’m going with three underdogs to end the column. After my last foray into NFL picks, there’s really no where to go but up. It’s not like I’m the Detroit Lions of pigskin pick’em… am I?