Time to Let the Big Dogs Play

College basketball fans across the country: Welcome to the Adult’s Table.

Now that the pseudo fans and “bracket kiddies” (mine went south once Memphis was decimated) have exited stage right, the real fans can dig in to what should be some top-of-the-line basketball games coming up this weekend.

We’ll put the games on the backburner for a second and focus on the head coaches. You want to talk impressive resumés? Take a look at the individual and combined postseason statistics for the coaches participating in Saturday’s Final Four:

• Jay Wright: 7 NCAA Appearances (15 years as HC), 11-6 NCAA Tournament record, 1 Final Four
• Tom Izzo: 12 NCAA Appearances (14 years as HC), 30-10 NCAA Tournament record, 5 Final Fours, 1 Title game and 1 National Championship (2000)
• Roy Williams: 20 NCAA Appearances (21 years as HC), 53-18 NCAA Tournament record, 6 Final Fours, 3 Title games and 1 National Championship (2005)
• Jim Calhoun: 21 NCAA Appearances (37 years as HC), 45-18 NCAA Tournament record, 5 Final Fours, 2 Title games and 2 National Championships (1999 & 2004)

Combined NCAA Tournament Statistics: 60 Appearances, 139-52 record (.728 winning %), 15 Final Fours, 6 Title games and 4 National Championships.

(I understand Jay Wright doesn’t add a lot to this conversation, but consider this: He spent 7 of his 15 years coaching at Hofstra and led them to the tourney twice. Since he left in 2001, Hofstra hasn’t been back since. Color me impressed.)

Look at the overall numbers; they’re downright gaudy. They’d be even more ridiculous if Izzo’s ’01 team didn’t run into a possessed Arizona squad (playing for Lute Olsen and his recently deceased wife) and if Roy Williams wasn’t consistently eviscerated on the national stage in his years at Kansas (I’m a Jayhawk fan, had to get my one dig in there).

The point I am trying make is none of these coaches are chumps. They all have extensive tournament experience and own a .600 winning percentage or better. Each has been to the Elite 8 at least once prior to this season; three of them have been to the National Championship game and won. These guys know what comes with the national spotlight, and I don’t expect any of them to get out-coached on Saturday night.

Now that we’ve stroked the coaches’ egos, time to talk about their respective squads. Let’s see how each team made their way through the field of 64 to arrive in Detroit:

Villanova

80-67 v. #16 American, 89-69 v. #6 UCLA, 77-54 v. #2 Duke, 78-76 v. #1 Pitt

(Avg. Margin of Victory: 13.00 PPG)

Michigan State

77-62 v. #15 Robert Morris, 74-69 v. #10 USC, 67-62 v. #3 Kansas, 64-52 v. #1 Louisville

(Avg. Margin of Victory: 9.25 PPG)

North Carolina

101-58 v. #16 Radford, 84-70 v. #8 LSU, 98-77 v. #4 Gonzaga, 72-60 v. #2 Oklahoma

(Avg. Margin of Victory: 22.50 PPG)

Connecticut

103-47 v. #16 Chattanooga, 92-66 v. #9 Texas A&M, 72-60 v. #5 Purdue, 82-75 v. #3 Missouri

(Avg. Margin of Victory: 25.25 PPG)

It’s safe to say North Carolina steamrolled through the South bracket. With double-digit wins in each game, Roy Williams has the Heels running on all cylinders. UConn’s road through the West was almost as easy, minus the gutsy roadblock placed in front of them by Big 12 tournament champ Missouri.

Michigan State’s road was much tougher in the upset-laden Midwest, having to go through defending National Champion Kansas and the overall top seed Louisville.

No team had a rougher route than the East Regional champion, Villanova. After surviving a first-round scare from American University, they proceeded to embarrass UCLA as well as the most overrated team in America (Duke). ’Nova then provided the top shot of the tournament thus far, as junior guard Scottie Reynolds traveled the length of the court to nail the game-winner against top-seeded Pitt.

After last year’s chalk-tastic Final Four, it’s nice to see a couple of non-number 1 seeds make it this far. The Big East, tied for the most entries into the Dance, is well represented, as two of the four finalists (UConn and Nova) come from this season’s premier conference. The ACC (UNC) and Big Ten (MSU), who also had 7 teams apiece, round out the finalists.

Which brings us to the main event, the big Dance. All that is right and pure in this crazy and mixed up world…

OK, maybe that last part was going a tad too far, but once I get rolling, watch out!

No more random outbursts, I promise.

Game 1: #2 Michigan State v. #1 Connecticut

Make no mistake about it; Michigan State is going to have their hands full with the talent and athleticism Connecticut brings to the table. UConn wants to get up and down the court and score in transition using AJ Price and Jeff Adrian while junior phenom Hasheem Thabeet patrols the paint on the defensive side. UConn has used role reversal to advance in this tournament’s later rounds, beating the scrappy Purdue Boilermakers into submission, Big Ten-style, then proceeding to outlast Missouri in their Elite Eight track meet.

Michigan State outlasted some seriously talented opponents as well, disposing of the national champs before throwing Louisville aside like week-old Thai food. While the regular season belonged to Big 10 Player of the Year Kalin Lucas, the big man in the middle for the Spartans, Goran Suton, has been an unstoppable force in the postseason, averaging 14 points and 12 rebounds per contest.

If Michigan State wants any chance to win this game, Lucas and Raymar Morgan will need to step up and help their big guy. Otherwise, it’s going to be a long night for the Spartans because, frankly, I am not sure they have the athletes to keep pace with Price, Adrian and Thabeet.

Prediction: Connecticut 85, Michigan State 76

Game 2: #3 Villanova v. #1 North Carolina

I hope you like scoring because this game is going to be a barnburner. On one side, you have North Carolina, arguably the most talented and athletic team in the country. They were good without Ty Lawson; they’re damn near unstoppable with him. With Lawson and 2008 consensus Player of the Year Tyler Hansbrough, alongside super-studs Danny Green and Wayne Ellington, what’s not to like? They have perimeter shooting, inside presence, stout defense and ferocious tenacity. Not to mention one of the top coaches in college basketball history (and I hate admitting that with all my heart. Damn you, Roy Williams).

On the opposing side, you have the Villanova Wildcats. If you can tell me one player on the ’Cats who has a legitimate shot to be an NBA All-Star, I am all ears. Don’t let that dissuade you from thinking they have a shot to win Saturday night. This team has shown a lot of heart and grittiness in dismantling teams on their way to the Final Four. Reynolds has been spotty throughout the postseason but hit the all-important shot against Pitt when ’Nova needed it most. Throw in seniors Dante Cunningham and Dwayne Anderson, and Villanova should be able to hold their own against the Tar Heels.

The fan inside of me wants to take Villanova. Everything is talking me out of two number 1 seeds making it to the title game again. However, I think this is where ’Nova’s run ends, because North Carolina is just too good with Lawson in the lineup.

Prediction: North Carolina 89, Villanova 80

Tags: college hoops, final four, preview