Time to Kickoff the 2010 NFL Season with ‘Fearful’ Predictions
The wait is over.
A mere 214 days, one hour, and 58 minutes since the last real NFL game kicked off, the Saints and Vikings open the 2010 regular season in a highly-anticipated rematch of their classic NFC Championship Game. It’s the eighth year in a row that the NFL has served us up a Thursday pigskin appetizer, and it’s the eighth year in a row that girlfriends everywhere were shocked to find out that NFL season actually begins on a Thursday. What an NFL season this promises to be.
Hope springs eternal for the NFL in September 2010. When your defending champion was once a perennial underdog — or rather, perennial cellar dweller — like the Saints, the 2010 season is wide open for the taking. The dominant teams of the last decade — the Patriots, Colts, and Steelers — are getting older or dealing with assorted problems, the next-tier teams — Eagles, Panthers, Chargers — each jettisoned a franchise player and are reloading, and even upstart teams — Texans, Bengals, and Jets — finally look like legit Super Bowl contenders. The optimism isn’t reserved for the “good teams” either as the 49ers, Raiders, Lions, and Rams all look like they’re about to put last decade’s futility behind them. Lord knows their fans would like that to happen.
All of this makes predicting this NFL season extremely difficult. Since I am normally terrible at these things (and refused to do so in my 2009 season preview), this is the perfect season for me — where sheer luck trumps pigskin prognostication power. While a lot of writers tout their “fearless” predictions, here are my “fearful” predictions for the 2010 NFL season:
(Below is my pick for tonight’s Saints-Vikings season opener.)
NFC Playoff Teams
- Green Bay Packers (North)
- New Orleans Saints (South)
- Dallas Cowboys (East)
- San Fransisco 49ers (West)
- Atlanta Falcons (Wildcard)
- Carolina Panthers (Wildcard)
Green Bay looks like they might be the best team in the NFC. The Packers had the second-ranked defense last year (sweeping that 51-45 loss to Arizona in their Wildcard matchup under the rug), and they have the best young quarterback in the league. Do you think all those teams would still pass on Aaron Rodgers in the first round if we revisited the 2005 draft? Any chance in hell the 49ers still select Alex Smith? Time to stop calling the NFL draft a science when it is clearly an art (an art that not many NFL front offices seem to be very good at performing).
The Saints and Cowboys both distanced themselves from the rest of their division in 2009 — and deserve the benefit of the doubt in ‘10 — while the 49ers assumed the pole position in the mediocre NFC West after Kurt Warner retired and the Matt Leinart experiment failed in Arizona.
The Falcons and Panthers, both playoff teams in ‘08, look ready to rebound from sub-par seasons last year. Did I mention the fact that I’m high like Harold and Kumar on Carolina quarterback Matt Moore. With two 1,100-yard backs (DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart) and a game-breaking receiver (Steve Smith), look for Moore to build on his strong closing performance in ‘09 when he engineered blowout victories over the Vikings and Giants, the latter of which occurred in front of an emotional crowd in the final game for the G-Men in Giants Stadium.
*Please note: I’m intentionally slow-playing the ‘10 Eagles. Let’s call this the first-ever poker-face prediction: 7-9 season. After all, the true mark of a rebuilding year is mediocrity. Because we know if I were to predict a 12-4 record — like my heart wants to — I’ll jinx the whole season… so yeah, 7-9. I also wanted to pick the Redskins to make the playoffs but instead thought better of it. Sorry D-Mac!
AFC Playoff Teams
- San Diego Chargers (West)
- Houston Texans (South)
- Miami Dolphins (East)
- Baltimore Ravens (North)
- Indianapolis Colts (Wildcard)
- Cincinnati Bengals (Wildcard)
Even though the Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeil holdouts have me worried, Philip Rivers has quietly assumed his place among the elite quarterbacks. Look for him to be this year’s Most Valuable Player in the first year A.L.T. (After LaDainian Tomlinson). It’s no secret that LT’s production declined steadily (and consistently) after his amazing 2006 season (belated thanks for helping me win my fraternity fantasy league that year, LT). His replacement, rookie running back Ryan Matthews, is on everyone’s Rookie of the Year radar. Even though Darren Sproles is a tremendous change-of-pace back, he isn’t as effective carrying the load. If Matthews is for real — and I think he is — then the Chargers will finally be a complete offensive team, even without their number one wide receiver and left tackle (two of the most overrated positions, in my humble opinion). Of course, the Chargers might be my Super Bowl pick if those two were with the team because, overrated or not, they will be missed come January.
The Texans and Dolphins both look like they’re ready to finally overtake the Colts and Patriots, respectively, in the division standings. Okay, the Texans look ready to unseat Indy (who will probably pull another 12-4 season off the assembly line), but the Dolphins might not quite warrant this prediction. Call it a gut-feeling in year three of the Bill Parcells Era. I’ll explain more tomorrow in my Week One picks column.
Baltimore gets my vote to escape perhaps the NFL’s best division, the AFC North. Just as the NFC East often wore down some very good Giants, Eagles and Cowboys teams the last few years, expect the AFC North — with top-five defenses in Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh — to grind each other down throughout the season. Don’t sleep on Cleveland, either, in year one of the Mike Holmgren Era. As good as the Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers are, I can’t imagine any getting that elusive first-round bye in the playoffs. If one of those teams does, look-out in the AFC playoffs.
NFL Playoff Predictions
Wildcard Round
- Falcons over 49ers
- Cowboys over Panthers
- Dolphins over Bengals
- Ravens over Colts
Divisional Round
- Packers over Falcons
- Saints over Cowboys
- Ravens over Chargers
- Dolphins over Texans
Championship Round
- Saints over Packers
- Dolphins over Ravens
Super Bowl XLV
- Saints over Dolphins
Breesus Christ and Who Dat Nation celebrate in the Big Easy for Lombardi Gras II! (Four nicknames in one sentence! Bite me, Chris “Boomer”/”Swami” Berman.)
On to my pick for tonight!
(Tomorrow, I will post the rest of my Week One picks.)
SAINTS (-6.5) over Vikings
How can you pick against the defending champions at home in Week One? Ever since 2004, when the defending Super Bowl Champions began hosting the annual Thursday season-opener, reigning champs are a perfect 6-0 in Week One. If that isn’t enough, the Louisiana Superdome is home to one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, and you can bet that the Who Dat Nation will out in full-force for this one. After waiting decades for a championship, expect an atmosphere similar to that of the first game back in the Superdome in 2006, when the Saints blew out the Falcons on Monday Night Football. Do you think a team without its top receiver and a 40-plus quarterback, with a bad ankle and little preparation, will be able to withstand that type of momentum? Me neither.
Quick side note about the devastating Sidney Rice injury: If the fourth year wide receiver had suffered a similar injury this time last year, would the Vikings fans be worried? Unless Miss Cleo is from Minnesota, I’m guessing the answer is no. Before his breakout 83 catch-1,312 yards campaign last year, this 2007 second round pick out of South Carolina had all of 46 catches for 537 yards and as many touchdown catches (8) in two years as he amassed in one magical season with Brett Favre. Just like he did during his nearly-two decade career in Green Bay, Favre made lemonade out of (what were once thought of as) lemon wide receivers. Who’s to say he can’t find another diamond — Percy Harvin or Bernard Berrian — in the rough?
But Favre’s heroics likely won’t be enough as New Orleans gears up for a chance at back-to-back Super Bowl titles. Unreal.
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No Birds in the post season?
I don’t know why everyone is so in LOVE with the Packers. Their offensive line allowed a shit-ton of sacks last year. Atari Bigby and Al Harris are on the PUP list, making their secondary weaker, which in turn puts more pressure on the pass rush to get to the QB. They were ridiculous at creating takeaways last year, and that should fall back to Earth some just from bounces of the ball.
And just because I’m a Cowboy fan and I’ve heard this for years…”How many playoff games has Aaron Rodgers won?” (RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE)
(He’s also 17-15 as a starter btw)
As for the NFC East…I have no idea. I don’t think Kolb will be that bad….although I have no idea who’s blocking for him, since they traded the Fat Andrewses and they were the only Eagles linemen I knew after Runyan left. Oh wait..there was that guy who Osi made look like a turnstile…is he still there?
The Giants…I can’t wait til week 2 when Kenny Phillips is out with a “knee” again, only this time it actually just fell off his body. Oooh you have a linebacker named “Chase”…or is that his nickname as he runs after another RB breaks a Giants LB’s tackle. So yeah, their D is not so nice. F Osi and pointy-head Tuck. (You don’t see them in San Diego, but his stupid pointy head is on Subway commercials here all the time)
I think anyone who thinks the Redskins will improve that much just because of Donovan and Magic Mike Shanahan and his band of geriatric RB’s is smoking something.
And the Cowboys…Tony Romo will be running around like a chicken with his head cut off again this year if no one can block for him. Just watch…everyone will be saying “oh, his gunslinging ways are back” when in reality it’s “the line held for .3 seconds…RUNNNNN!!”. They do have the best defense in the East (and D-Coordinator, say what you want about Wade, that man can coach a defense, and he does win regular season games by the bucketload) so that should hold them in games moreso then the previous years of crappy blocking like 2008.
So there’s my take on the NFC East…which also has insane schedule this year vs. AFC South and NFC North. I could see the division winner being 10-6, 9-7.
Your prediction will not “jinx” the Eagles season. It has no impact on reality. They are both independent variables. Other than that, I enjoyed this very much. Just please don’t indulge in logical fallacies, you are better than that.
I like you leaving out the Jets, too much hype there, between them and the Ravens, one of them will be a disappointment. I think you are underestimating the Colts. Also, my sleeper pick this year is the Titans. I think they make AFC Championship game at least.
D, I want them to be in the playoffs, but I’m just not sure. I’m trying to avoid too much homerisms in my columns — unless of course I’m writing about the Eagles only.
Tugger, well said. No question that the NFC East will be a battle and each team has some serious question marks heading into the season. That’s why I think the AFC North is probably the better division now.
Jaimini, Good call on the Titans. I figured I’d go w/ the Texans if only because this is the first season in a while that not a lot of people are calling as a sleeper. As for my Eagles pick, well, it’s probably the one team I have trouble looking at logically. Hence I gave two predictions (one for my heart and one for my brain).