One If by O, Two If by D
By: Greg Miller
THE COMMISH
The Super Bowl happened ages ago, mini camps don’t start until the summertime, and the 2009 regular season is still five months away.
WHAT IS A DIEHARD FOOTBALL FAN TO DO?!
Well, I could watch baseball…
Nah, the season is just getting under way. There will be plenty of time to watch baseball come the dog days.
How about the NBA or NHL playoffs?
Eh, no. I’ll think I’ll pass. I love basketball and hockey but the playoffs are just too long, especially since I lack an NBA team and the Avs are sitting at home, licking their wounds from the massive, league-wide beat down they took this season.
So if it’s too early for baseball and I have no rooting interest in the NBA/NHL postseason, how do I find a fix for the sports jones I currently possess?
I know! The NFL Draft is coming! The NFL Draft is coming!
Did you know the Draft is coming? I didn’t know the Draft was coming!
(Insert sarcasm here.)
In case you didn’t know (say you’ve been under a rock with no ESPN access since the Super Bowl), the National Football League will hold its player selection draft on April 25th and 26th at Radio City Music Hall in New York City. Consisting of seven rounds and over 250 total selections, the Draft is the NFL fan’s mini-binge of football gluttony, located smack dab in the middle of the football hiatus known as the offseason.
If you aren’t familiar with the NFL Draft (which is a downright shame if you’re reading a sports site), let me break it down for you as easy as I can:
The draft is the annual event where the league’s 32 teams are given a number of draft picks over seven rounds to select players, much like the military might through its conscription policy (though without the protests…most of the time). Draft order is selected based on the previous season’s record or playoff finish, with the league’s worst team picking first and the Super Bowl champion picking last.
Each team starts with seven picks (not counting trades and league infractions) and extra selections, known as compensatory picks, can be given to teams based on losses in free agency. Teams will then use these picks to draft former college players based on team need or overall player value.
At least this is how it’s supposed to happen.
For every great draft selection, there are dozens upon dozens of horrendous picks. I say Edgerrin James, you say Curtis Enis. You say Larry Fitzgerald, I say Charles Rogers. I mention Tom Brady and you could throw out Joey Harrington or David Klingler or Alex Smith or Tim Couch or… you get the picture.
The NFL draft is football’s version of Russian roulette, only there is one blank chamber (representing success) and five filled chambers (representing failure).
It’s a loose representation (and incredibly morbid), but I’m going to run with it anyway.
The point I’m trying to make is that, while the thought process behind the draft is filled with good intentions, teams are going to miss more than they are going to hit. For every great pick you make, there is a potential to make four or five average-to-terrible picks. All-Pros and Super Bowl MVPs are hard to come by. First-round busts and those who fail to live up to their potential are the norm.
All in all, the NFL Draft is one of my favorite non-sporting sporting events of the calendar year, since no sport actually happens during the programming.
This year’s draft should be an interesting one, given the floundering economy and the league’s absurdly high rookie pay structure for top-level draft picks. Here are the contracts signed by the last four top overall draft picks:
- 2008: Jake Long – 5 years, $57 million deal ($30 million guaranteed)
- 2007: JaMarcus Russell – 6 years, $68 millon deal ($31.5 million guaranteed)
- 2006: Mario Williams – 6 years, $54 million deal ($26 million guaranteed)
- 2005: Alex Smith – 6 years, $49.5 million deal ($24 million guaranteed)
That comes out to an average of $57 million over 6 years with $28 million guaranteed. The team with the first overall selection will need to shell out that kind of money to someone who has never stepped on a field as a professional in one of the worst economic recessions in recent memory.
Once again, you see the importance of researching draft-eligible players and breaking them down in every way possible. From 40 times to intelligence tests, pro days to interviews, teams know every physical and psychological facet of the players they draft.
Well, that’s what they want you to think, anyway. They do the best they can with the resources allotted but at the end of the day, these players are just kids. All the money and talent in the world can’t make someone into a great football player.
With that said, let me offer a quick segment I like to call “Over/Under” with some of this year’s top college prospects. I am basing my call of “overvalued” or “undervalued” on whether or not a player will go too high or too low based on their overall talent and potential upside.
Matthew Stafford: QB – Georgia (Projected Overall #1 Pick): Overvalued
At this point in time, it’s hard for the number one pick to not be overvalued. Any team cursed with the top selection is going to have to pay too much money to get this pick into camp. I think Stafford has the tools to be a top-notch NFL QB, but he is going to struggle in the Lions organization. Sure, they’ve gotten rid of Matt Millen, but as long as William Clay Ford is still the owner of this franchise, they will continue to stink. Add on top of that the recent struggles in Detroit’s economy, and there is no way Stafford isn’t overvalued.
Aaron Curry: OLB – Wake Forest (No. 1-rated prospect): Undervalued
Curry should be the top overall pick. He is the best player in this draft (sorry, Michael Crabtree) and he is as close to a lock as you are going to get in terms of fulfilling potential. He is currently slated to go number three to the Kansas City Chiefs, which would go a long way to adding some much-needed talent to an underachieving Chiefs linebacker corps.
Jason Smith: OT – Baylor (No. 1-rated linemen): Undervalued
Sure, the offensive line isn’t a glamorous position. It’s not going to put fans in the seats and it’s not going to get people excited about the coming season. However, if you want to keep your quarterbacks upright and your running backs healthy, then it all starts on the offensive line. Smith is one of the highest-rated tackles to come out in the past five years and should make an immediate impact in the NFL. Like Joe Thomas and Jake Long, he will bring stability and tenacity to any offensive line.
Michael Crabtree: WR – Texas Tech (No. 1-rated WR): Overvalued
Sorry, I just don’t see it. Yea, he’s got the size and hands of a Larry Fitzgerald and maybe he has the game-changing ability. But the health problems bring a little concern for me and I’m not sure I can justify him going anywhere in the top five. If he goes lower than five, then he becomes undervalued. In terms of overall production, receivers just aren’t worth the money of a top-five pick. He’ll be a great talent in the NFL but a team like Jacksonville (eighth overall) or Washington (13th) would be a better fit than Cleveland (fifth).
Regardless of where these four (and the other 252 players) go, the 2009 NFL Draft should be one for the ages.
Now if we could only figure out how Mel Kiper Jr. keeps his hair looking like that…
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