After getting off to an admittedly rough start following the NBA playoffs, pledge to do better from here on out. If you haven’t been paying attention on Twitter (follow me on Twitter @DrSportsFan), here’s how I’ve been failing as a sports fan thus far in the NBA playoffs:

(1) I’ve been DVRing Sixers games and watching them on taped delay while attempting to pull of a sports game blackout.

(2) I’ve tweeted several times about the crappy officiating (never a good sign for a sports fan) to the point that I look like either a moron or someone with a personal vendetta against the NBA refs.

While there isn’t much I can do about my busy schedule (I’m kind of a big deal), I’ve decided to abstain from ref bashing on Twitter. It’s just in the best interests of everyone involved — mostly for me. Nobody likes a ref basher, even in 140 characters or less.

So let’s talk some basketball, shall we?

Let’s start with Superman himself, Dwight Howard. Aside from my personal annoyance that he’s basically the self-proclaimed Superman (whatever), sports fans have to start asking themselves the following question: Has Dwight Howard made the leap? His numbers — 39.5 ppg, 19.0 rpg thus far in the playoffs: Yowza! If Howard has indeed made the leap, welcome to the second coming of Shaq. Only this guy works out! Again, Yowza!! (I think this is the Passover talking. Why it would be talking for a non-religious, Irish guy… I can’t tell you.)

Andre Iguodala finished 8th (8th?) in the Defensive Player of the Year voting. That’s a bit off. Iggy might not be much of a scorer, but he is one helluva defender as he’s proving with a fine defensive effort against Lebron James — though it’s being overshadowed by his complete-and-utter lack of offensive game in this Heat-Sixers series. Though if you ask Lebron, he might just say that he’s just shooting poorly. Lebron = EGO MANIAC. You remember Lebron James (applicable Back to the Future quote) the man who took his life and flushed it completely down the toilet (to go to Miami).

Quick Philadelphia fan side bar: How deflating was Game 2’s blowout? Congrats on being the only team in the Eastern Conference to get blown out. Seriously, since when did the Sixers turn into Butler? (Full credit to that joke goes to Jack Bauer of All Sports.) For all intents and purposes, the 76ers are finished in this series. Charles Barkley said it best: Miami is better at just about everything than the Sixers. Silver lining: Now we’re playing with house money and nothing to lose. No one expected this Sixers team to even make the playoffs. Now, no one expects them to even win a game. Win a game (or two) at home and then everyone will be fired up. Things can only go up from here. (We can build on th– OK! I won’t rip off Bill Simmons this once…)

In other news, Boston’s Big 3 is cementing its legacy as this generation’s “Bad Boys”. Their series with New York is a blood bath. Both Melo and Ray Allen each have shiners. (Even if they aren’t from this series, impressive!) Ironic that the Riley-Ewing Era Knicks were the last true bullies in the NBA. Like all of basketball’s bullies, this Celtics team is greater than the sum of its parts. All the more reason to hate Danny Ainge’s trade of Kendrick Perkins (one of the chief bullies) for Jeff Green, a seemingly kind-hearted fellow that is woefully out of place in that locker room. Sometimes it’s the trades you don’t make that build champions. Just ask Larry Brown, who nearly derailed the fan-favorite, conference champion ‘00-’01 Sixers team before it happened. Luckily, his trade of Allen Iverson never materialized. What sort of weird parallel universe would Sixers fans be living in if Iverson had indeed been traded? If the Keith Van Horn and Glenn Robinson mistakes are any indication, NOT GOOD. (Larry Brown the coach > Larry Brown the GM)

Out West, believe me when I tell you that Lakers fans are on DEFCOM 30, thus easily making them the least confident two-time defending champion fan base in history. Of course Chris Paul is giving Lakers fans nightmares right now. Things have gotten so bad that they even miss Steve Blake. (Who’s out with chicken pox? Sad but true.)

Did I mention Paul is back? That makes me happy. You hate to see Hall of Fame talent wasted by injury.

Another question to ponder: Is it time for the Tim Duncan Era Spurs to be put out to pasture? Most dynasties — let’s face it, San Antonio is one under Duncan and Gregg Popovich — crumble rather suddenly. Am I just overreacting to the impact of Manu Ginobuli’s loss? That could be possible. Even still, hard to feel title-worthy when Manu is very injury-prone and Tony Parker is a better ladies man than point guard — much less “dynasty-worthy”.

Between the Lakers’ and Spurs’ troubles, I think the West is ripe for Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder to storm to the finals. They nearly took LA to the limit in the first round last year — without Kendrick Perkins and his 7-foot body to matchup with Bynum, Gasol and Odom. Not to mention that was a motivated Lakers team…

(I’m just going to avoid talking about the Mavericks. Who knows what to expect from Dirk and J-Kidd, though as a fan, I’m bummed that we never got to see how good this team could be with a healthy Caron Butley.)

Back East, the Bulls have their hands full with the Pacers, Boston has its hands full with Melo and an Allen Iverson-memorial supporting cast (at least when Amar’e Stoudemire and Chauncey Billups are injured), and Orlando has its hands full with an Atlanta team they handled in last year’s Elite Eight. (I know Elite Eight is college tournament speak, but it just sounds so much better than the Eastern Conference Semifinals).

All the while, the Heat are making mince meat out of my Sixers, who I thought were actually kind of good. That means that Miami Heat and the OK City Thunder have the early look of two teams that might meet in the NBA finals. That would pit Kevin Durant and Lebron James — perhaps the league’s best scorers — against each other for their first ever title. Good vs. Evil, Legend vs. Future Legend. Oh and Dwayne Wade, Russell Westbrook, and Chris Bosh would be there as well.

But what good is all this predictions business anyway? For all we knew, Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers could be two-time defending champions right now and the phrase “Taking my talents to South Beach” might never even exist in popular culture. Unfortunately it does, and that’s not good for anyone. Hopefully, the 2011 NBA playoffs will be more good than bad for us sports fans. That would be good for everyone. Let’s see how it plays out.

And maybe, just maybe, we should enjoy ourselves in the process.

Before enjoying myself with that trio of Disney animated awesomeness, I and millions of others had to sit in a classroom for six to seven hours a day learning about things that I either a) had no interest in or b) was too young to realize that some of this stuff would actually be used in real-life situations.  To this day, I debate why I learned about the Civil War at the tender 4th grade age.

The NBA Playoff landscape is a lot like your average elementary school classroom setting.  There are the ones who are excelling.  There’s the ones who make their parents proud with solid B’s and C’s, the ones who show promise and those unfortunate souls who just never seem to have anything but F on their test papers and quizzes.

Failing: Atlanta Hawks, New Orleans Hornets

With all due respect to the Hawks – and I’m not really giving that much at all to be honest – I’m not buying you as a legitimate contender, ever.  It’s not happening, so don’t twist my arm.  In the last two years, you’ve needed seven games to defeat your first round opponents (Miami in ’09 and Milwaukee last year) only to get swept and obliterated by the more elite teams of the Eastern Conference.  (Cleveland swept in ’09, and Orlando destroyed Atlanta last year).

Dear Atlanta.. Giving Joe Johnson a max contract makes me feel that you don't want to be good.

How did you decide to change my mind?  By giving Joe Johnson a max contract.  Okay, I’m done with you, Atlanta.  You had your chance.  That package of Kool-Aid ain’t going in my shopping cart.  When you give a guy like Johnson (12 ppg in that Magic series last year) a max contract, it makes me second guess how the team is being run because the inmates are clearly running the asylum.

Right now, you draw Orlando in the first round, and (as scary as this sounds) Dwight Howard is better than he was last year, and the Magic are better as a team.  In that series, you were outscored 429-328 in that epic laugher of a series, and there’s a good chance that margin could be a little wider.

Now, New Orleans is failing in my book not because of stupidity in player management, but because of bad luck – injuries specifically.  Can we all just accept the fact that Chris Paul is not nearly what he used to be?  Ever since Paul’s meniscus injury last year, he’s been sporting a knee brace that is reminiscent of the one used by Stone Cold Steve Austin.  There’s no question he can still get points on the scoreboard at will, but we’ve been seeing a lot less of those electric drives he was doing earlier in his career.

That wouldn’t be a problem if David West was completely healthy, but Mr. West went down with a torn ACL and is likely done for the year.  The Hornets just don’t have enough to even get out of the first round.  It would be great if Paul stayed in New Orleans and didn’t flirt with going to New York, but the superteam is the nature of the beast these days, and it’s a shame because New Orleans could be good in another year or so if the face of the franchise sticks around.

Needs Improvement: Indana Pacers, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Memphis Grizzlies

Alright, let me get my homerism out of the way.  I like what the Sixers have done this year.  What they’ve done was totally unexpected, and my head has been exploding since they hit the .500 mark.  With that said, it’s with great fear in my heart that I say the Sixers could do something in round one because I’m almost positive I’ve just jinxed them.

If they play Boston, it’s a done deal.  Boston wins that series, but if Miami slips to the #3 seed, though, I could talk myself into a “Sixers in 7” pick.  The Sixers are young and inexperienced, but they are one thing that Miami is not – DEEP!  Lou Williams and Thaddeus Young have been sensational in their roles off the bench.  However, the first part of that last sentence is what concerns me.  I just don’t think these Sixers are ready to make a huge impact right now.  The 12-point win in Chicago two weeks ago gives me hope for the future, but I’m not getting too hyped up just yet.

Now that that’s out of the way, we’ll go to the Knicks because they’re the easiest to explain.  They’re not going anywhere for several reasons – the first of which being a lack of depth.  I guess no one in New York was paying attention when I said that Miami would struggle because they’re sending out F-league players when the starters need a breather.  New York sent a whole cast of role players to Denver in the ‘Melo trade, and they’re living with their grade – much like the kids that skated by in school by copying the test of their other C+ average friends.  Yeah, you’ll pass the class, but your parents aren’t putting the “My kid is an honor student at random elementary school X” bumper sticker on the car.

The Knicks will be good with 'Melo in the future, but they're not quite ready yet. Defense wins championships, guys. Just sayin'.

If the Knicks played any kind of defense at all, I might be frisky enough to take them for one round, but they’re matched up against Miami.  The way New York plays defense, the Heat might just win the series and put up 140 points per night.  Of course, the Knicks are capable of putting up 141 points.  That was until the NBA figured out that the Knicks are incredibly predictable on offense (essentially ‘Melo or Stoudemire gets the ball in a one-on-one situation – something I will address when talking about another team).

I can’t say the Knicks are failing quite yet because they still have Anthony and Stoudemire, but let’s just say there’s a note on their report card in red marker with the message “parent/teacher conference requested”.

Indiana and Memphis – the two #8 seeds – are in summer school right now.  They have some good players that are producing some good grades, but there’s just not enough there, yet.  Memphis, unfortunately, lost Rudy Gay for the year with a shoulder injury, and there’s virtually no way the Grizzlies are going to win so much as a game against San Antonio (or the steadily creeping Lakers).  I’m not entirely sure what the hell happened to O.J. Mayo between last year and this year, but Memphis needs its sweet condiment to go on its potential playoff sandwich.  (Yes, I know that joke has been made a thousand times, but I’m doing it again!)

Indiana intrigues me not because of who they are, but because of who they could be.  With Granger, Collison and Hibbert, the Pacers have a nice little nucleus to build around.  Can you imagine if this team had an actual 2-guard (like O.J. Mayo if Pacers management understood the concept of a deadline)?  Honestly, if no one was fired after that, I’d be disappointed if I were a Pacers fan.

Solid Students: Orlando Magic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trailblazers, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets

I could have easily put Orlando in the honors class with the rest of the sheer contenders of this playoff crop.  I love Dwight Howard’s progression to a more offensive threat averaging a career high 23.2 points per game and developing at least some kind of post game.  I love the fact that they realized Vince Carter does not equal NBA Championship and letting Hedo Turkoglu walk was a brazen mistake.  I love the additions of Jason Richardson (38% from three) and Gilbert Arenas (no, I really do love this addition), and I love the emergence of J.J. Redick (10 ppg, 40% from three).

There in lies my problem with Orlando.  Is this team going to be operating on all cylinders come playoff time?  I’m not worried about the Atlanta Hawks beating Orlando because it’s not going to happen.  I am, however, concerned about teams like Chicago and Boston who are well equipped to handle Orlando’s perimeter shooters.  This team revolves around Howard in more ways than one.  Orlando’s offense is predicated on Howard’s ability to get the ball to open shooters when he gets a double or triple team.  When they’re playing teams like the Bulls and Celtics – who play amazing team defense – those open looks may not be there.  Unless Arenas can remember how to get to the lane off the dribble, Superman may have a problem.

Kevin. Buddy, I love 'ya, but you guys need just one more year to reach the honors track.

Unlike Oklahoma City who may have solved their problem – interior presence.  They got that in the trade that brought Kendrick Perkins to Kevin Durant’s backyard.  Since the trade, Scott Brooks has been cautious with Perk’s minutes, and as a result, he should be ready to be what Oklahoma City brought him in to be – despite common perception.

With Perkins, the Thunder are rolling out a pretty formidable starting five of Big Perk, Ibaka, Durant, Harden and Westbrook, and it’s hard to find a weak spot in their offense.  If you shade defensively to stop Durant, Westbrook can go off for 30 points and vice versa if you’re crazy enough to shade defensively away from Durant.  That line is capable of representing the West in the NBA Finals, and no one should be surprised if it happens.

No one should be surprised if Oklahoma City falls just short (Western Finals loser) because they’re still babies to this whole thing.  If you’re looking at the NBA Playoffs like a Thanksgiving dinner situation, the Thunder aren’t quite sitting at the adult table just yet.

Dallas is the one team in this group that would surprise me the most if they made it to the NBA Finals.  Not because they aren’t good, but because they haven’t done much in the post season since their previous Finals appearance in 2005.  The year after that was the memorable 4-2 series loss to Golden State, and the Mavericks haven’t been the same since.

For that reason, I could have put them in the “needs improvement” category of playoff students, but if you have Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry on your team,  I can’t really count them out too far – as in they could win a first round series.  I was a big fan of the Tyson Chandler move in the offseason, and that is paying pretty good dividends as Chandler is the young(er) athletic, defensive center that Dallas needed to get rebounds and block shots.  If I had any faith in Shawn Merion and Jason Kidd, then I’d pick Dallas as a dark horse, but I haven’t had faith in those guys in several years.

I do, however, have no problem at all picking Portland or Denver as a dark horse to win the west.  Who do I like more between the two? (dramatic pause).  Denver.  Right now, Denver is the #5 seed and their first round matchup is Oklahoma City.  First of all, let me say that I would watch EVERY GAME OF THAT SERIES because it would be so fast paced and so epic on so many levels.

Ahh, Danilo. I love this little nugget, but this team is strictly playing with house money in the BIGGEST way.

Here’s something you need to consider when talking about the Nuggets.  With Carmelo Anthony, they scored over 106 ppg, but their defense was suspect.  Without Anthony, they still score in the 104-107 range, but allow less points.  Since the trade, Denver has held 11 opponents to under 100 points.  That may or may not sound impressive to you, but when you consider the Rich Creamies were allowing over 100 habitually, that makes them a little bit more of a frisky pick.

They’re fast enough to run with Oklahoma City and faster than the ho-hum San Antonio Spurs.  Facing the Lakers could be a problem because Denver doesn’t have the size and would get pummeled in a seven game series vs. Los Angeles.

Equally frisky in the West is Portland.  Of all the trades made at the deadline, I was giddy about the Gerald Wallace to Portland trade more than any others.  When they made that deal, I became the parent that screams “that’s my baby” when my kid brings home their first “A” on a paper.  You have to measure every team against the Lakers (because they’re my pick to win the West).

Does Portland have the size to deal with Bynum/Gasol?  With Camby and Aldridge, yes.  Can Portland throw two or three guys at Kobe Bryant defensively?  Wallace, Matthews.  Yes.  Does Portland have enough offensively to upset the Lakers four times out of seven?  Eh, maybe.  All-star guard Brandon Roy isn’t starting in the offense yet (although he plays 20-25 minutes per game), and sooner or later, the Blazers are going to need his offense to make any kind of dent.

Honors Class: Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers, Chicago Bulls, San Antonio Spurs, Miami Heat

And, here we are.  The cream of the crop.  The kids that sit in the front of the class that everyone hates and idolizes because their parents have a refrigerator pasted with achievements.  The only difference is that in the NBA, all of the other teams would be proud to be sitting at the head of this class.  (Unlike much of my scholastic career.  I was the jerk in the back row lobbing spitballs at the A+ kids.)

Let’s start with the Miami Heat because – in my opinion – this is the team LEAST LIKELY to win the NBA Championship.  I’ve been called a lot of things this year when I talk about the Heat – the most frequent of which is a “Heat Hater” – but I stand by my convictions when I say this team isn’t winning the NBA title … at least not this year, anyway.

LeBron took his talents to South Beach to join Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, but the same two questions create the two B grades when every other grade on the progress report is an A – the most important of which being their lack of depth that I’ve hammered home over and over and over again.  I have a hard time believing that James Jones, Mike Bibby and the decaying body of Eddy Curry (whom Miami is allegedly in the market for) are the answers for a bench comprised of players who are either old or just plain aren’t good.

There’s no denying that LeBron James has been great this season (27 ppg, 7 rpg, 7 apg), and Dwyane Wade has been equally incredible (25 ppg, 7 rpg, 5 apg).  With those two, Miami should have no problem keeping things interesting in a seven game series.  My concern is which Chris Bosh is going to show up come playoff time.  If the Bosh of the beginning of the season manifests in the post season (i.e. no physicality, mid-range jumpers, etc.), then Miami will be exiting early because there’s no balance.  The Heat need the most recent inception of Mr. Bosh – the window cleaning post man they’ve come to enjoy the last few weeks.  If all three of the new big three are on their game, Miami’s going to make a good run.

Up until their best big man went down with an ankle injury, I thought San Antonio was going to make a nice little run of their own surprising everyone on the way to the NBA Finals.  Oh, how an ankle injury changes my mind so quickly.

Don’t get me wrong.  Parker and Ginobili are well equipped to give the Lakers fits, and the Spurs have one of the deepest benches in the NBA to provide adequate breathers when those elder statesmen of San Antonio need a minute.  When playing Los Angeles, you need a lot more than a pair of athletic perimeter guys when the Lakers are trotting out a pair of seven footers on the starting line and another off the bench (Lamar Odom).

With a healthy Duncan, San Antonio was the only viable threat to upset the Lakers in the Western Conference because with Duncan and Blair, the Spurs could at least hang with Gasol and Bynum.  If Duncan is only 70-80% because of that tender ankle, my doubts about another surprise from the most tenured teacher with the same team in the NBA right now – Gregg Popovich – are greatly increased.

When I think of the Boston Celtics, I think of this kid named Herman Willis I knew in elementary school.  He always got good grades.  He was always #1 in the class, and just when I thought he was slipping off the ladder to the middle of the pack, he’d reinvent himself by learning fractions quicker than anyone else in the fifth grade.  (Damn, I hated that kid.)

Now that I think about it. Paul Pierce looks a lot like that kid, Herman.

The Celtics bolted out to a 32-9 record in the first half of their schedule, and those feelings of hatred surfaced because I thought to myself: “Damnit, here comes that kid Herman, again.”  Next thing you know, Boston is trading Kendrick Perkins to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green – a trade that I actually thought was a great move despite Celtics fans worry about not having a healthy big man.

Just when I thought that Boston was going to slip and fall to the “solid student” category, they figured this thing out with the new additions and the hope that Shaquille O’Neal and Jermaine O’Neal would be coming back.  Rajon Rondo has been slipping a little bit, but in the last week or so, he seems to have righted the ship a little bit.  That bodes well for guys like Paul Pierce and Ray Allen who depend on his slashing and insane passing.

Lest we forget that Boston plays the kind of team defense that can give Miami and Chicago fits (because they already have), and there’s always the factor that they’ve been to the playoffs … many times recently.  They’re equipped to adapt with Doc Rivers, so there’s no reason why they can’t just represent the East in the Finals but win the whole damn thing.

When you think about the Chicago Bulls, you can compare them to the new kid in school that just seemed to come out of nowhere and impress teachers and administrators – like the new brown noser.  Not so insult Bulls fans with that remark, but that’s how I see them.

When Tom Thibodeau and Carlos Boozer landed in the Windy City, I knew the Bulls were going to be good.  What I didn’t expect is for them to challenge for the best record in the Eastern Conference – at least not this quickly.  Thibodeau was the perfect pick to be the new Bulls head coach after Vinny del Negro took the Bulls three steps back after taking one step forward.  Thibodeau’s Bulls are tops in the league in just about every defensive category, and their record is a direct result.

That and the fact that they have Carlos Boozer to team with All-Star point guard and MVP candidate Derrick Rose.  As I stated in a previous column, Rose is the choice for MVP.  There’s no one else that should get it, and I’ll take that statement to the bank and deposit it right now.  What Derrick Rose is doing with his point scoring (25 ppg) and his assists (8 apg) is impressive, but what makes Rose that much more special is his leadership.

Rose has been willing the Bulls to victories time and time again this season.  The Bulls started the season without Boozer, and Chicago still started strong.  When Boozer came back, the Bulls were grooving, and then Joakim Noah went down.  Rose made sure that Chicago didn’t miss a beat, though.

Now, the Bulls are completely healthy and well prepared to take on the elite teams of the Eastern Conference (Boston, Miami, etc.) as well as be a championship contender when they meet Los Angeles in the NBA Finals.

And yes, I say with full conviction that the Los Angeles Lakers will win the Western Conference.  San Antonio’s best big man is limping around right now and may not be 100% come playoff time.  Oklahoma City – everyone’s darling – needs one more year before they’re ready for the big time, and no one else is really worth mentioning.

If I see Kobe with this face and I'm on the other team, I'm just walking away because I'm not getting embarrassed.

Forget about the fact that the Lakers have the most awe-inspiring front line in the NBA because that point has been exhausted to death.  Can we just focus on Kobe Bryant for a little bit because he’s just as important to this team as the twin towers?  In that marathon game against the Phoenix Suns a few weeks ago, I saw something on Kobe that should make everyone else crap their pants: the famous Kobe growl/snarl face.

Kobe is in playoff mode already, and there’s still a few games left in the regular season before the NBA’s second season starts.  Giving Kobe that added time to activate Beast Mode when the Lakers are already the hottest team in the NBA – 17-3 since the All-Star break – is just unfair.  That’s essentially the equivalent of giving the smartest kid in the class a cheat sheet for the final exam and letting him use it on the day of the test.

Of all the teams in the playoff classroom, the Lakers are the ones with the best shot at getting the highest grade in the class and earning the Larry O’Brien certificate of excellence because the best player in the game is peaking at the right time which only makes his team that much better.  Throw in the twin towers and Phil Jackson, and I can’t pick against them.

There are teams that are going to do well this playoff season, some that need a little extra time in the library studying and that unfortunate pair that just can’t seem to keep the red marks off the test papers.  In the end, it’s much like school where we want to excel as much as possible.

Before the all-star break, that’s just the potatoes and a lot of “let’s figure this thing out” going on.

After the all star break, that’s where amazing happens. The trade deadline, the NBA playoffs, the seeding to the NBA playoffs. Even the NBA Draft Lottery can be compelling. How many times have you heard the phrase, “Devon Harris and John Wall? The possibilities are endless.”

Okay … Maybe only I’ve said that.

Now, other writers say what they want: Lakers this, Cavaliers that, Orlando the other thing. It’s not as clear cut as some sports writers think. Look at the standings in the West for example — particularly the lock-jam at the #5 spot. It’s a “Gladiator” situation with Oklahoma City playing the role of Russell Crowe, San Antonio as Joaquin Phoenix and the Suns playing the role as the poor guy attached to Ralf Moeller’s arm in the first Gladiator event that African province. Oklahoma City (or the “Zombie Sonics” as one sports columnist calls them) intrigues me the most in this group. They can potentially be as low as sixth seed or as high as third. They took a six game winning streak into the All Star break and have more momentum than San Antonio or Phoenix going into the second half. They don’t need to make a drastic trade that ruins so many other playoff hopefuls, and what more do you need when you have Kevin Durant?

By the way, a memo to fans of the NBA: Kevin Durant has arrived. Please pick up your programs at the gate, sit back and enjoy the show. Is anyone else playing better than Durant? Show me someone else doing something like average 25+ points in 25 straight games — 26 as of February 16th. Please. Otherwise, it’s Durant’s world right now. Kobe who? Seriously. Durant is far more entertaining, and he is a legitimate threat to the scoring title. As it stands right now, LeBron James is at 29.8. Durant is one-tenth of a point behind (29.7 for people with weak arithmetic). Why will Durant overtake LBJ? Simple. Durant is a scorer. LeBron is a “do everything”-er? Not only does LeBron score, he passes, rebounds and assists, too. That’s great if you’re trying to achieve TEAM goals, but not so much when you’re going for individual achievements. Durant? He just scores. And scores. And then scores some more. Start getting used to this on a yearly basis because he’s only 22.

Other things to get used to? How about old players on new teams? Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood? Welcome to Dallas where you’re actually allowed to carry weapons. (Too soon?) Some of the more notable names being thrown around include Amar’e Stoudemire (pencil him in Cleveland’s lineup) and Tyrus Thomas. One deal involving Thomas sends him to Minnesota which makes no sense to me since they already have Kevin Love and Al Jefferson at power forward. Here’s another name that was thrown around a couple weeks ago: Monta Ellis. Word from the pot of gold in Boston had the Celtics trading Ray Allen’s expiring contract plus some cash and some youngsters for Ellis. That would be a GREAT move for Boston because it makes them a bigger threat in the East. There wouldn’t be another tandem as athletic as an Ellis and point guard Rajon Rondo combo, and not one team could keep up: not Cleveland, not Orlando, not no one. If Cleveland can’t get Stoudemire and Boston gets Ellis, I’d watch that second round Cleveland/Boston series a little closely because there’ll be a “Boston in 7″ feel to it.

Something else you may want to watch in the East on is the Dwight Howard vs. Shaquille O’Neal feud that’s brewing. After the last Cleveland/Orlando game, Shaq commented on Dwight Howard’s superpowers with his “Superman, my ass” comment. Is the 38-year-old Shaq in Howard’s head? Maybe, but Howard should to let his performance do the talking. In two games against Shaq, Howard is averaging 15 points and 9 rebounds compared to Shaq’s 10 and 5. Round three will happen this weekend in Orlando, so we’ll see just how much Shaq really is in Howard’s head. No matter what happens between these two in the regular season, playoff time is completely different. Come March and April, who’s going to have more of the advantage: the older veteran with the psychological edge or the youngster with the physical edge and the fresher legs? Howard only averaged 22 and 11 in the Eastern Finals last year against Zydrunas Ilgauskas. There’s nothing to lead me to believe he can’t be as effective against a guy who’s just as old, only a lot more pudgy.

(P.S. All of this is irrelevant anyway because if Vince Carter doesn’t get his ‘ass together, Orlando’s not going far. Seriously, why did Orlando give up on Hedo Turkoglu? Why give away a guy who averaged 16 points, 5 assists and 5 boards a game, can run the point and be clutch down the stretch? The Magic were a threat last year because with the Nelson-Lee-Turkoglu-Lewis-Howard lineup, Howard could make his moves down low or kick it out to one of FOUR jump shooters. Can the Magic really win with a guy like Vince Carter who is better at creating his own shot, but not the better distributor Turkoglu was?)

I’m so fired up about talking about the Eastern Conference now that I’m just going to continue with the big question in the East: Can anyone beat Cleveland? Barring a Stoudemire trade … yes. If Stoudemire goes to Cleveland, put the Larry O’Brien trophy in a box and just ship it to 1 Center Court, Cleveland, Ohio, 44115. There are two teams in particular that can give Cleveland a run:

Orlando: Obviously because of Howard. I don’t think Shaq is in Howard’s head as much as he THINKS he is, and I don’t think Cleveland can beat Orlando with the 1 vs. 5 LeBron James offense they used last year.

Boston: Listen to what I say. If the Celtics pull the trigger and get Monta Ellis, Boston will beat Cleveland in a second round matchup. The Cavs wouldn’t be able to match up against a Rondo/Ellis backcourt (as aforementioned) with Pierce, KG and Kendrick Perkins down low. Ellis to Boston makes the green machine relevant again. Instead of going down in six, the Celtics could win in seven.

I can hear the murmurs coming from the A-town. Actually, it’s more the sound of a short man yelling “What!?!” at me. With all do respect to Josh Howard and Joe Johnson whom I respect very much, I don’t think the Hawks have the firepower. You’ll be competitive, and you may just win a game or two. In the end, getting to the NBA Finals is next to impossible. I wouldn’t be shocked, but I’m not exactly putting my life savings on it, either.

I am, however, putting my life savings on the Denver Nuggets in the West. Yes, Los Angeles is a short two hour drive north from where I lay my head, and the wrath of Laker Nation could fall on me at any second, but I stand by my statement. Why? The same bug plagues the Lakers like a Windows computer virus: the inability to defend certain elite point guards (i.e. Chris Paul, Deron Williams or Chauncey Billups). This year, opposing point guards score 20.7 points per game which is worse than last year (16.4). That stat doesn’t say too much, but combine that with Billups’s 22 ppg average against the Lakers as well as J.R. Smith’s 23.5, and uh, it could be disappointing in April. Yes. LA got away with it last year, but there’s one large difference: Ron Artest is not the dominant defender he once was. He’s not guarding Chauncey Billups. He’s not guarding J.R. Smith. He’s not guarding Carmelo Anthony. Sure, he can try as hard as he likes, but he’ll lose more times in those match-ups than he’ll win. Why the Lakers let Ariza walk to get Artest will confuse me until the end of time.

Almost 1,400 words later, here’s the question: 2010 NBA Finals. Who’s playing?

Representing the East will be LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Getting there won’t be easy. They’ll probably need 14 games to get through Boston and Orlando, but in the end, LeBron won’t let this team lose. With the summer of LeBron looming, LBJ might feel he needs to win it now because he’s clearly playing it.

Representing the West: George Karl’s rich, creamy Nuggets. Without Ariza, the Lakers are less athletic than they were last year, and the Nuggets have the guards (Billups-Smith-Lawson) to run the Lakers out of the playoffs. (REMINDER: The Nuggets snapped the Lakers eight-game home winning streak without Carmelo before the All-Star break, so what happens on February 28th when Denver goes to Los Angeles again with when they have all their players strip mining the purple and gold.)

The dream matchup of the 2003 NBA Draft will happen seven years later. Until then, enjoy the last 30 games of the season because there’ll be plenty to pay attention to — unless you’re a Nets fan.

Even with Ray Allen dropping 28 of his 30 points in the second half — including the game-winner with shot-blocker Joakim Noah in his face; Ben Gordon put up 42 points, and Rajon Rondo turned in a triple double, 19 point-16 assist-12 rebound performance. Back-and-forth in the fourth quarter with three guys lighting it up, that’s a classic playoff basketball game.

Even though I hate to admit it, I have to say it.

The NBA Playoffs, where amazing happens!