Jack’s Lean, Mean NFL Regular Season Predictions

By Jason Branch
JACK ‘BAUER’ OF ALL SPORTS

Now that the preseason is out of the way, we can finally talk about real NFL football and evaluate where teams are as we embark upon the opening weekend of the greatest sports league in the world.

It’s well documented that my track record is, as many of my loyal readers and fellow writers here at Taking Back Sports might say, pretty good. All the so-called experts and pundits will try to offer you their Super Bowl predictions this week before even one game is played. As far as I’m concerned, you’ve got to play the regular season first, so don’t ask me to offer you any Super Bowl predictions yet. Too many teams get overlooked by predicting the Super Bowl this early. What really matters most is how teams play towards the end of the regular season.

To quote Jim Mora: “Playoffs? Don’t talk about playoffs!”

I say, “Let’s get there first and find out who will be in the field.”

As we have seen this decade, the “rest of the field” — as opposed to the preseason favorites — has made quite a splash in the postseason. How many people had the Cards representing the NFC last year before week one? A couple years back, the Patriots entered the post-season 16-0, but hadn’t exactly played championship ball down the stretch. Sure enough, the Pats lost in the Super Bowl, shattering the preseason Super Bowl-predicting pundits’ dreams of brilliance.

So with that, here are my predictions for the regular season only. As far the blurbs about each team, I give them to you as a fan, not as an “expert,” because I would only qualify as an “expert” on a handful of specific teams. I’m not trying to fool anyone here, unlike the “expert” writers of the likes of ESPN.com, Fox Sports, and Yahoo Sports that claim to know everything about every single team. Jack says, “That’s bull****!”

Thus, this is Jack’s Lean, Mean Regular-Season Outlook, and nothing more. I implore you to check back on this during the season and let me have it if I’m blowing it on some teams.

NFC East

1. Philadelphia 10-6 (3)
2. NY Giants 9-7
3. Washington 9-7
4. Dallas 8-8

NFC South

1. Carolina 11-5 (2)
2. New Orleans 9-7 (6)
3. Atlanta 9-7
4. Tampa Bay 7-9

NFC North

1. Green Bay 11-5 (1)
2. Chicago 10-6 (5)
3. Minnesota 7-9
4. Detroit 3-13

NFC West

1. Arizona 9-7 (4)
2. Seattle 8-8
3. San Francisco 6-10
4. St. Louis 5-11

*Parentheses indicate projected playoff seeds*

NFC East

(This is one division I can say I am close to an “expert” on, being a Birds fan.)

1st: Philadelphia

Donovan McNabb no longer can complain about a lack of weapons, but the banged up O-line will take some time to develop chemistry and afford Donovan the time to find his targets. Combined with losses on defense (the late Jim Johnson, Brian Dawkins to free agency, and Stewart Bradley to a torn ACL) and this team, believed by many to be NFC favorites as training camp opened, will be held back in the win column. Frankly, they have looked pretty bad in the preseason, especially on defense. Still, the Eagles are a very good team that will find its way and is the class of its division. (For the record, I won’t call for any ties.)

2nd: N.Y. Giants

As last season indicated, this team is not the same without Plaxico Burress in the lineup and down the stretch teams were able to defend the Giants’ air attack much easier with him out. Hakeem Nicks was a good draft choice, but he’ll be no Plaxico in his first year out of college. Osi Umenyiora returns to the lineup, which will bolster an already-fierce defense. Make no mistake, the Giants are still a very good team, but Eli Manning still has not shown he can throw the pigskin well in the cold and, with five of their last six games in potentially cold weather (at Denver, vs. Dallas, vs. Philly, at Washington, vs. Carolina), look for the Eagles to edge the Giants in a tight division race. Eli might want to start praying now for accelerated global warming so it’s a little cozier at Giants Stadium in December and January.

3rd: Washington

This season might be do or die for Jason Campbell. He’s got a good running tandem in Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts, but Portis clearly is on the decline. He’s also got proven veteran receivers in Santana Moss and Antwaan Randel El. Simply put, Campbell has enough around him to have his best statistical season, and with another year of maturity, this could be a breakout season for him. The ‘Skins will also field basically the same defense that ranked fourth in total yards against. Bottom line: This should be a winning football team and the Steinbrenner-like Dan Snyder has every right to believe it this season.

4th: Dallas

The pundits can say what they want about the so-called “addition by subtraction” of T.O.’s departure and an anticipated improvement in team chemistry, but he is still a very good talent that stretches defenses. After playing in no-pressure Detroit his entire career, Roy Williams looked like he was suffering from fifth-grade stage freight in the Cowboys uniform. The Cowboys barely were a winning team last year, and anyone not paid to think so knows the truth: This team is worse off than last year. Tony Romo can’t handle the pressure of big games, let alone the pressure of winning in a brand new $1.2 billion (Dr. Evil-style with the pinky on the corner of his mouth) stadium. Sorry, Mr. Jones!

NFC South

1st: Carolina

This division caused a lot of headaches for the even great Jack Bauer of All Sports. I’ll confess: I picked this division last. The Panthers, who won 12 games last year, largely remain intact. The Falcons should improve with the addition of Tony Gonzalez and QB Matt Ryan offering no reasons to think he will experience a “sophomore slump.” And then there are the Saints, who welcome defensive coordinator Greg Williams, who worked wonders with the Redskins defense despite having very limited individual talent. All in all, a division that was the best in the NFC last year should compete for that label again. I don’t see them wining 12 games again, but in what will be a competitive division top to bottom once again, I’ll go with the defending champs, who still boast a solid defense, strong running game, and veteran QB in Jake Delhomme.

2nd: New Orleans

This team had no issues moving the ball last year, finishing first in total offense. The problem was the defense, which finished a disappointing 22nd in yards allowed. Enter Greg Williams to save the Saints defense, and based on his exemplary track record, there is no reason to think he won’t have a visible impact this season. Last year’s version of the Saints was good enough to finish 8-8 in the NFL’s toughest division, and this year’s version has to be at least a little better with Williams running the D. Atlanta will still be a strong squad, but they did overachieve a bit last year. Jack likes a veteran Saints team to rebound and snag the NFC’s final playoff spot ahead of Atlanta, which will draw the league’s fourth-toughest schedule.

3rd: Atlanta

So after much talk about the Falcons in the blurbs about the Panthers and Saints, we reach the Falcons section. As already beat to death, this team will still be very good behind a very quality young QB by the name of Matt Ryan, who now has future a Hall of Famer in Gonzalez at tight end to throw to — in addition to Roddy White, who broke into the role of legit No. 1 WR last year. The Falcons made a host of transactions in the offseason to try to upgrade a sub-par defense, but this unit at best won’t be better than average in 2009. This team will still post a winning record, but 11 wins will not happen, as the Falcons have been rewarded for last season’s success with such a tough schedule. With the rival Saints poised to be better this year, 9-7 won’t be good enough for Arthur Blank’s team to reach the postseason this year.

4th: Tampa Bay

No Jeff Garcia at quarterback is a problem for this team. Byron Leftwich has had limited bright sports, but this offense is worse off with him as the QB. A running back corps of Ernest Graham, Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams will have to carry this offense. Tight end Kellen Winslow is a significant upgrade in talent, but given his past, I don’t expect him to live up to the hype, at least not this season, and not with Leftwich at the helm. And then there is the defense, which is now without its two longtime leaders, Coordinator Monte Kiffin and LB Derrick Brooks. This defense was a top-10 unit last year, but won’t be this year. The Bucs are still a pretty good team, but unfortunately for them, they play in very good division. I don’t see how they can play winning football this season competing against the Panthers, Falcons, and an improved Saints squad.

NFC North

1st: Green Bay

Aaron Rodgers performed very well in his first season as the Packers’ starting QB. Expect him to continue to improve this season, along with the defense, which wasn’t great statistically last season but is youthful has every key player returning. The schedule is favorable, with games against the Lions (two), Niners, Bengals, Rams, and Browns. This team is poised to improve upon last season’s 6-10 underachievement with solid talent on both sides of the ball, a predicted blow up in Minnesota due to the Brett Favre saga (more below), and playing the NFL’s third-easiest schedule.

2nd: Chicago

For the first time in ages, the Bears will have a proven, upper-tier QB in Jay Cutler; however, he has an unproven group of wide receivers to whom he’ll throw. The Bears will need the WR corps to really develop this season, and Cutler should help expedite that. The defense wasn’t quite up to snuff last year, but should benefit from Cutler helping the offense stay on the field longer. This team went 9-7 last year with the lowly Kyle Orton leading the charge and the offense finishing in the middle of the pack in key offensive categories. Enter Cutler, and Jack thinks this team will be rejuvenated and return to the postseason.

3rd: Minnesota

Vikings head coach Brad Childress’ man-crush on Brett Favre will destroy the good thing that was going in Minnesota. Childress is a disciple of Andy Reid, having inherited Reid’s knack for gross stupidity in key spots. Tarvaris Jackson played well towards the end of the season. I for one (and I know I am not alone), have a hard time fathoming how a 40-year old QB who crumbled down the stretch last year is going to make the Vikings a better team. Reports out of Vikings headquarters are that there is a divided locker room over Favre coming in. This is not good for a team looking to build upon last year’s success. The players can refute this publicly all they want, but Jack says, “no sale.” Couple that with Kevin and Pat Williams’ playing status still in legal limbo because they apparently needed performance enhancers to be the dominant D-line duo they were last season, and the Minnesota Vikings look like a train wreck in the making. They will still be a decent “team,” but anything short of a playoff win this year will be failure, and Mr. Childress might be in the unemployment line.

4th: Detroit

Ah, the lowly Lions. Surely they can’t go winless again, but this team is still dreadful. They are not worth any more of my time, or your time, so I’ll cut to the chase. I’ll put them down for three wins, because it’s more than zero, but will still leave them as the worst team this year in my projection, and that’s right where they belong. Not Matthew Stafford starting at QB — nor the new uniforms — will resurrect the Lions this season.

NFC West

1st: Arizona

The defending NFC Champs return their electric air attack and add first-round pick Beanie Wells to the RB group, but the loss of coordinator Todd Haley and Kurt Warner’s age will have an effect on this offense. The defense picked it up tremendously during the postseason with its aggressive style, but to expect the same from a squad with limited individual talent over a 16-game season is unrealistic at this point.  The NFC West should be a little better with Seattle returning to health, but the defending NFC Champs are Jack’s favorites in this division.

2nd: Seattle

No team suffered more from the injury bug last season than the Seahawks, who were ravaged on both sides of the ball. Matt Hasselback is the anchor of the offense and without him playing well, this team isn’t the same. The addition T.J. Houshmandzadeh will bolster this team, along with the return of the starting O-line, which lost all five players to the IR before season’s end last year, and a potential breakout from RB Julius Jones. With the rise of the Cards last season and their ability to keep key players in place, I don’t think the Seahawks are poised to regain the top spot in the NFC’s worst division, but they are a .500 team that is capable of making the Cards sweat out a second straight division crown.

3rd: San Francisco

This team finished strong under the tough love of Head Coach Mike Singletary, but now has to contend with two legit teams in its division as opposed to one, not to mention the lack of a proven quality QB to run the offense. This team overachieved to finish 7-9, but that won’t happen this year with the division having improved by virtue of the Seahawks, especially not with Michael Crabtree continuing to hold out.

4th: St. Louis

This team finished 2-14 last season for a reason: no talent besides RB Stephen Jackson and a defense that finished in the bottom of the pack. With new head coach Steve Spagnolo, I expect the defense to improve, but the Rams as a whole are still a long-term project. If they are able to get to my predicted five wins, Spagnolo would be worthy of Coach of the Year consideration, because on paper there is nothing there to work with right now.

AFC East

1. New England 11-5 (2)
2. Buffalo 9-7 (5)
3. Miami 8-8
4. NY Jets 6-10

AFC South

1. Indianapolis 10-6 (4)
2. Houston 9-7 (6)
3. Tennessee 9-7
4. Jacksonville 6-10

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh 12-4 (1)
2. Baltimore 9-7
3. Cincinnati 5-11
4. Cleveland 3-13

AFC West

1. San Diego 10-6 (3)
2. Oakland 8-8
3. Denver 5-11
4. Kansas City 4-12

*Parentheses indicate projected playoff seeds*

AFC East

1st: New England

The Pats welcome back Tom Brady this season, and while Matt Cassel performed exceptional in his place, he is no Tom Brady. This team is older now on both sides of the ball and will not be running the table in the regular season, but plenty of weapons remain on offense for Brady. He also has a veteran O-line that has played together seemingly forever and good running backs in Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney (returning from injury), and Fred Taylor. The defense is not what would be considered a “championship defense,” but it is still experienced and very reliable. The bottom line: Considering an 11-5 finish for this team last year with Cassel at the helm, this team should cruise to the division title with Brady this year.

2nd: Buffalo

This team had tough luck last year when Trent Edwards, possibly the best young QB that no one knows about, fought to maintain his consistency throughout the season while struggling with injuries. But he’s back at full health this year and will have T.O. to throw to — assuming of course he can man-up and play though the toe injuries. Marshawn Lynch should continue to develop and be in mid-season form towards the end of the year as he will enjoy unpaid leave for the first month of the season, and the relatively young defense will get help with the addition of first-round draft choice Aaron Maybin. This team finished 7-9 last year with an up-and-down Edwards, and if Edwards can stay healthy the entire season, it should be able to post a winning record.

3rd: Miami

It is still puzzling to Jack how the Dolphins finished 11-5 last year. The good news for Jack is that he believes the real Dolphins team we will see this year is what we saw against the Ravens in the playoffs. The Wildcat isn’t fooling anyone this year, especially teams with good, disciplined defenses like division rivals New England and New York. The Dolphins were the beneficiaries of Tom Brady having extra time with Giselle during the 2008 season and the virtual absence of Brett Favre the last six weeks of the season. With Brady back and Buffalo poised to finish better than last season’s 7-9 effort, there is no way the Dolphins can win 11 games again, especially with a defense that was only average last year and won’t be any better this year, and the Dolphins drawing the NFL’s toughest schedule.

4th: NY Jets

This team was rolling last year until the cold weather came and Brett Favre couldn’t get it done. Enter rookie starter Marc Sanchez. So far, he’s looked like a rookie in the preseason, and there’s no reason to believe he will be better for the Jets than Favre was. Sanchez is a So-Cal guy, so best of luck to the kid on the East Coast come November and December — if he’s still ahead of Kellen Clemens on the depth chart. The good news for the Jets is the defense, which adds LB Bart Scott (who followed new head coach Rex Ryan from Baltimore), Lito Sheppard (who finally got his wish and was traded out of Philly), and veteran LB Larry Izzo from the rival Pats. The defense will be better, but the offense will be a liability this season. Look for the Bills to move ahead in the final standings, leaving the Jets in the basement.

AFC South

1st: Indianapolis

This division was tough for Jack to pick. Yes, Tony Dungy has retired as head coach and Marvin Harrison is unemployed, but the Colts still have the most potent offense in this division. They have a healthy Peyton Manning throwing to Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, and Dallas Clark; and a healthy Joseph Addai at running back is poised to post his third 1,000 yard rushing season in his fourth season. Not mention, the Colts have one of the premier pass rushers in Dwight Freeney and get back a healthy Bob Sanders at safety. These are not the Colts of earlier in this decade that were a sure bet to get 12 wins a season, but they are a veteran group, and with Tennessee expected to experience a drop off in wins this season, the Colts are my candidate to claim the division crown.

2nd: Houston

Texans Head Coach Gary Kubiak made it as plain and simple as possible: The success of this team depends upon QB Matt Schaub playing a 16-game regular season. When Schaub has been healthy, this team has looked like playoff material. The defense continues to grow behind Mario Williams, who after a slow first season has justified his top overall draft selection ahead of Reggie Bush. Jack is a believer in the “due” factor, and after eight years as an NFL franchise and Schaub failing to play a full season the last two years, this team is due to have Schaub finally healthy the entire way and sneak into the postseason. Kubiak’s back is against the wall  this year, so expect his team to play with a purpose. With Peyton another year older and Tennessee unlikely to have QB Kerry Collins put up the same numbers as last year — as well as coping with the loss of Albert Haynesworth on defense for Titans — there are a lot more divisional wins available for the Texans this year.

3rd: Tennessee

Collins will be 38 in December. There is no reason to think that he can repeat what he did last year for this team, achieving above his career averages. This offense will have to be carried once again by the running trio of Chris Johnson, Chris Henry, and LenDale White. The defense took a big hit when Haynesworth took the money and ran to the Redskins. This team will still be good and play winning football, but I don’t see them posting 13 wins again, especially with a Colts team at full health and a Texans team that is due to have a healthy QB for a full season and is better as a whole than the Titans.

4th: Jacksonville

This team has one of the top running backs in the league in Maurice Jones-Drew. It also made quality upgrades to the offense by signing free agents Tra Thomas and Tory Holt and drafting offensive linemen Eben Britton and Eugene Monroe. QB David Garrard should have better luck staying healthy this year as he has an upgraded unit to protect him and a veteran target in Holt, but the defense was in the bottom two-thirds of the league last year and is unlikely to be much better this year. The Jags on paper should be better than a 6-10 team this year, but they play in a division with three other teams that are better than them and have legitimate division crown aspirations.

AFC North

1st: Pittsburgh

There is no reason not to favor the defending champs in this division. The Steelers’ D is unlikely to see a repeat performance by 31-year old James Harrison to go along with the dominance of Troy Palomalu, which really put this unit at the top of the stat sheets last season. The offense returns all of its key weapons, but the O-line remains suspect. It cost this team games last year, and it hasn’t been upgraded even close to a level where Jack is confident enough to say it won’t again. The good news for the Steelers: They draw the fourth-easiest schedule in the league, Baltimore will be taking a step back with its defensive losses, and they get to play each the Bengals and Browns twice.

2nd: Baltimore

Another year older for Ray Lewis and he loses LB Bart Scott and coordinator Rex Ryan, looks like a drop-off for the Ravens defense this season. Joe Flacco was impressive as a rookie, but he is not yet ready to pick up the slack for a defense that will not be nearly as good. The schedule is tough for the AFC runners-up, with games at Green Bay, New England, and San Diego and home games against Indy and the Bears. A winning record is still attainable for the Ravens this year, but it will be a fight.

3rd: Cincinnati

It’s shaping up to be another long season for the Bungles this year. Two key members of the second-worst offense in the league last year have departed (T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Stacy Andrews) and Chad Ochocinco is just not that good a receiver anymore. But hey, if the place kicker goes down, Ochocinco has another way he can contribute. This team ended the season with a host of players on the IR, so getting them back has to be worth something, even to this lousy team. I’ll give them a game and a half improvement this year.

4th: Cleveland

Its hard to see any transactions in the offseason that improved the talent level of this team. After earning the title “Mangenius” in this first season with the Jets leading them to a playoff berth in 2006, Eric Mangini faded into mediocrity with the Jets. The Browns’ new coach was unable to bring success to the Jets when Pennington got banged up in 2007 and when Favre started playing like a 40-year old down the stretch last season. Sadly, for a city that has been itching for an NFL playoff birth for years now, Mangini is not going to be the savior this season. He’s only a mediocre coach, and he’s got sub-mediocre talent around him.

AFC West

(This is the other division that I am close to an “expert” on, living in San Diego.)

1st: San Diego

The Bolts are the only team in this division that has the pieces in place on both sides of the ball. They have a top-five quarterback in Phillip Rivers, a terrific running tandem in LaDanian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles, reliable receiving weapons in Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson, and Antonio Gates, and solid defense that will welcome the return of Shawne Merriman (at least for now–  Note to Mr. Merriman: Might want to lay off the tequila for a while). The only question mark for the Chargers is secondary, but this team has enough to run over the pitiful AFC West.

2nd: Oakland

Yes, the Raiders! Hear me out. This team played very well down the stretch. It may not look like it on paper, but the young Raider defensive unit was pretty good last year considering they played more minutes than every defense but Detriot’s. The defense is in place and the offensive side of the ball — with a potentially terrific RB duo of Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, serviceable O-Line, and veteran WR Javon Walker — is a unit opposing D-Coordinators must pay attention to. Tom Cable, a wizard of an O-coordinator during the two years I saw him at UCLA, has proven himself a quality NFL coach, and his gruff but fiery personality is just what Al Davis has been waiting for since “Chucky.” Jack will take his head coaches punching out assistants — that means they have passion and believe they know they may have success brewing during training camps. Combine all these factors with the drop off of the Broncos and still awful Chiefs in the same division, and Oak-Town’s first non-losing season since the 2002 season is in reach.

3rd: Denver

The Broncos’ four game losing slide after starting 2008 with an 8-4 record has extended into the offseason. This team not only has failed to improve itself but actualy got dramatically worse. For starters, Mike Shanahan got the heave-ho for Josh McDaniels (who has proven himself thus far as incompetent a head coach as Lane Kiffin), Jay Cutler was swapped for Kyle Orton (another dramatic decline in talent), and go-to WR Brandon Marshall has already mailed in his 2009 season. Perhaps the most serious issue with this team though is the defense, which was simply dreadful last year. The addition of veteran Brian Dawkins will help, but his best days are behind him, and that was the only defensive move the team made. The Broncos used the draft to add more running backs! This team is in total disarray and lacking any sort of leadership. It is going to be a long season in the Mile High City.

4th: Kansas City

It is hard to see this team being much better than last year coming off a 2-14 effort. Todd Haley coming in to coach and Matt Cassel to throw the ball are definite improvements (sorry Herm, your team didn’t really look like it played to win the games last year), but this team lacks any big-time impact players besides RB Larry Johnson now that Tony Gonzalez is in Atlanta. It’s hard to imagine this team not improving from two wins, but it will be a close battle of sucking between the Chiefs and Rams for worst team in the state of Missouri.

Tags: 2009 season, NFL predictions