NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks and Juan Castillo

Tomorrow is the start of the Wildcard Weekend for the 2012 NFL Playoffs. WOOOO!!!! As a true football fan, I can still enjoy the playoffs even without my favorite team playing. And I hope you can too — unless, of course, your f-ing team made the playoffs; bite me.

But before I get to this week’s picks, I’d like to talk some Eagles. Now, please forgive me for what I’m about to say. I know it doesn’t make that much sense, but I think I’m right. The Eagles should retain defensive coordinator Juan Castillo for the 2012 season.

(This isn’t to say that hiring Steve Spagnuolo would be a bad idea. Before the Eagles’ 4-game winning streak — and during it — I could be heard talking about how “necessary” it was to hire Spags as the team’s defensive coordinator next year. I am apparently a “flip-flopper” a la John Kerry circa 2004. Sue me.)

There are plenty of reasons to fire him — plenty — but to keep this short and to the point, I’m just going to focus on reasons why he shouldn’t be fired.

The first reason is the Wide 9. This much ballyhooed defensive line alignment — to which we were subjected to article after article and talking head after talking head describing it — actually works with our defensive linemen.

Unfortunately for the rest of the defense, this new front caused problems for our young linebackers and safeties, the men charged with plugging the larger-than-normal interior gaps. It also caused problems for its neophyte d-coordinator.

Jason Babin, signed to a longterm and big-money deal, is a Pro Bowl-caliber defensive lineman in this scheme and a decent backup in a normal scheme. If you coaxed Jim Washburn out of Tennessee to run this system, don’t you want a defensive coordinator who knows how to run it? And wouldn’t this year be a complete waste if we scrap it altogether and start anew in ‘12? What happens to Babin or Washburn or even Cullen Jenkins, a 3-4 end by trade?

The next reason to keep Castillo is based on results. Call it fools’ gold if you like, but the defense started to click on all cylinders at the end of the season. The same defense that was gutted like a fish by John Skelton and Tavarus Jackson — wow, this season sucked — was the same defense that shutdown teams in the season’s final quarter. You can’t help who you’re playing and neither can Castillo. If we’re to believe that the team finally started clicking, why would we want to waste this progress and start anew?

One of the new wrinkles that Castillo implemented was that two-man front with two defensive tackles lined up in their Wide 9 alignment with Trent Cole and Babin acting as rush linebackers. It’s the closest thing to a 3-4 look the Eagles have run since I started watching football. In fact, now that I think of it, the Wide 9 is really close to a 3-4 front — only without a nose tackle. And haven’t we been asking for more 3-4 looks with our undersized and speedy defensive lineman? (I know I have.) The point is that it looks like Castillo is starting to figure this thing out.

Will Juan Castillo return in 2012 as the Eagles defensive coordinator?

Asante Samuel’s absence also showed the true potential of this defense. Part of the problem coming into this season was the fact that neither Samuel, Nnamdi Asomugha, or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie could play the slot consistently, to put it lightly. (Ironically, in Madden — where team chemistry and playing out of position are not applicable — these three corners are devastatingly effective. If only Madden translated to real life…) Without Samuel — who really hasn’t done anything to deserve the odd-man out status other than the fact that he’s not a press corner — and with the more than capable Joselio Hanson at home in the slot, Asomugha and DRC are free to play their game more often and this defense looks seriously imposing.

My final concern with firing Castillo is the fact that we’d have had three defensive coordinators in three season — four in five, counting Sean McDermott’s brief tenure. One the biggest keys to success in the NFL is consistency at coaching. Granted, consistently crappy coaching probably isn’t the answer either. I guess the opinion here is that Castillo is actually not a crappy defensive coordinator. Neither, for that matter, is Spagnuolo.

I guess it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if Spags returns to South Philly. However, as this season has taught us, what looks good on paper doesn’t always translate to wins on the field.

With that being said, let’s predict some wins on (virtual) paper.

Cincinnati (+3) over HOUSTON

Seriously, Jake Delhomme and TJ Yates? I don’t care if Andy Dalton is a rookie quarterback, the Texans are down to their 3rd or 4th quarterback. The last time Delhomme suited up for a playoff game, he threw five picks and fumbled once, and that was against the not so vaunted Arizona Cardinals defense. How is he going to fare against a Marvin Lewis coached defense? The guess here is poorly. Even if Yates plays, as expected, the guess here is that the Bengals get their first playoff win since I turned five, and the Texans remain winless in the postseason.

Hey, at least you finally made it to the playoffs, Houston!

Detroit (+10.5) to cover against NEW ORLEANS

With the firepower that Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and company boast, how can you turn down this lusty point spread? (You can’t — unless, like me, you refuse to gamble on sports.) That being said, I still expect the Saints to pull this one out. You remember how last year’s 12-4 Saints had to travel to 7-9 Seattle, where last year’s Taking Back Sports’ annual Alpha Male Play of the Year from Marshawn Lynch knocked off the defending champions? The Saints do too. Something tells me that Drew Brees and company won’t let that happen again this year — much less at home. Still, this game promises to be awesome.

Now, cue the unexpected defensive struggle…

Atlanta (+3) over NEW YORK

Let me start out by saying that I don’t really think the Giants are really that good. Eli Manning had a great year, and Victor Cruz had an even better year. Oh and Jason Pierre-Paul (great name) was awesome too. (Shame, he’d have looked great in midnight green.) But when I watched any Giants games this year, I saw a team get by on one or two incredibly big plays on offense from Manning or Cruz. I don’t think they can continue to do that. Then again I didn’t think they could do that before they won the Super Bowl after an up-and-down 2007 season. I have been wrong before, and I will be wrong again.

Oh and by the way, Matt Ryan’s next playoff win will also be his first. Shit, I’m starting to rethink this whole thing. I better stop before I — *gasp! — pick the Giants to win. Moving on…

Pittsburgh (-8.5) over DENVER

Defending conference champions, who boast a stout run defense, against an 8-8 team that backed into the playoffs with a running quarterback that doesn’t throw very well. Hmmm. Yeah, this one’s easy. Even if Big Ben is hobbled and shaky, there’s no way the Steelers defense let’s Tebow Time even think about making this one a game.

Then again, last year’s Saints-Seahawks game taught us that nothing’s easy in the NFL, and that’s precisely what makes it such a great game. Enjoy wildcard weekend everyone!