NFL Week One Picks: Fear the Roadies and Garrett Hartley

(If you missed my NFL season preview and predictions column yesterday, feel free to check it out and laugh.)

Garrett Hartley, you have apparently entered the Ray Finkle zone. Unlike Ace Ventura, when the fictitious soccer-style kicker turned policewoman (EINHORN IS A MAN! OH MY GOD!) angered Miami Dolphins fans with a missed chip-shot field goal in the waning moments of the Super Bowl against the 49ers, Hartley’s 32-yard miss didn’t affect the outcome of last night’s opener — though it could have. That won’t stop him from enduring the wrath of gamblers everywhere because his shank either caused a push or prevented the Saints from covering the spread, depending on when bets were cast.

(I know a lot of people compared Hartley to Finkle, but what about the placekicker, Nigel “The Leg” Gruff, in The Replacements. If you forget, it was that sneaky good football movie with Keanu Reeves and Gene Hackman from the early 2000s. Remember when he had to miss that field goal against Dallas in the last game before the strike was set to end? “They’re gonna take my pub! It’s all I got left!” I like this comparison a little better, after factoring in the gambling implications of the miss.)

This is why gambling against the spread, with money on the line, has to be one of the most painful endeavors one could possibly undertake. Hartley’s miss is a text-book example of that. The Saints were clearly a touchdown better than the Vikings, at least for one night, and a crappy performance from their placekicker — the same one who went a perfect 8-for-8 in the postseason and set a Super Bowl record with three field goals from beyond 40 yards — was the only reason it didn’t come to pass.

Did I mention the Saints won the game, but anyone that bet on them against the spread either lost or tied?

(Imagine how bitter I’d be if I actually put some of my meager, hard-earned dollars on the line for this…)

Enough complaining, the NFL is back! It’s time to pick the rest of the week one matchups. Like last night’s pick, I have a feeling I’m going to regret a few of these. As the title of this column suggests, I’m expecting a lot — and I mean A LOT — from the road teams. Of the 15 matchups left this week, I’m back 12 road teams against the spread. While that might not be too bad in and off itself, I’m also backing seven road dogs and nine underdogs overall. Two of my three home team picks are actually underdogs!

I’m about to get schooled in the art of picking against the spread.

Dolphins (-3.5) over BILLS

Nice a road favorite!

The demise of the Buffalo Bills is well-documented — no playoff wins since the Jim Kelly era and no playoff appearances in this millenium — but the real story here is Miami. The Dolphins are in year three of the Bill Parcells Football “Czar” era. This is usually when his teams begin to hit their stride and enter the upper echelon of the NFL hierarchy. Third-year quarterback Chad Henne is ready to let it fly after three 300-yard passing days in December and the addition of Brandon Marshall in the offseason. No one runs the Wildcat better than Miami, so we know that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are each capable of a 1,000-yard season. Plus we know the Dolphins will probably field a competitive 3-4 defense in the mold of all Parcells’ teams. With the Jets getting most of the preseason buzz and the Patriots getting their due as the league’s last dynasty, not many people are talking about Miami.

That said, more people are talking about the Bills and how bad they’ll be. Still, I’m excited to see rookie running back C.J. Spiller in some real game action. How they are going to use him, Marshawn Lynch — another first round pick — and Fred Jackson — last year’s thousand yard back — is a bit of a mystery. Last time I checked, three starting running backs do not equal an NFL-caliber starting quarterback (sorry to all five of the Trent Edwards fans out there). Here’s to hoping we get a steady diet of Wildcat in upstate New York. (After all, it helped rebuild the Dolphins after their disastrous 1-15 season in ‘07.)

Lions (+6.5) over BEARS

Ah yes, our first (of many) road underdogs. I have to admit I’m feeling saucy about this Lions team. And I’m definitely not alone. Maybe they’re not ready for primetime yet, but I’ll bet that’s what a lot of people thought about the 2000 Eagles, 2008 Falcons, or the aforementioned ‘08 ‘Phins. Head coach Jim Schwartz should begin to turn around the defense in year two, and Matthew Stafford should begin to climb the ladder as he too enters year two. Plus you have to love the talent in guys like Jahvid Best, Calvin Johnson, and Ndamukong Suh as well as depth-guys like Kyle Vandenbosh and Nate Burleson. These Lions won’t be anyone’s whipping boys for much longer.

As for the Bears, Jay Cutler is learning his second new offensive system in two years — that makes it three systems in five season in the NFL — after the last one resulted in a 26-interception season. (Funny how a lot of scouts compared Cutler to Brett Favre before he was drafted.) Factor that in with a free agent splurge in the offseason that brought in Julius Peppers and third-down back Chester Taylor and expectations might be a bit too high in the Windy City for the second straight year. Did I mention the new offense coordinator is Mike Martz? Will Jay Cutler become MVP Kurt Warner (circa ‘99-’01) or turnover-machine Warner (circa ‘02-’03) — I’m betting it’s closer to the latter, at least in the early going.

Raiders (+6.5) over TITANS

If that last pick was a bit of a reach, then this one is a Stretch Armstrong reach. The Titans are definitely a prime breakout team candidate after finishing 8-2 just a year after a 13-3 season (sweeping that little six-game losing streak to start ‘09 under the rug, joining the Packer defensive performance against Arizona in the Wildcard Round). And this is the same Raiders franchise that hasn’t won more than five games in a season since the ‘02 season. For a little perspective, we weren’t even halfway through W’s first presidential term the last time the Raider had a winning team.

But hope springs eternal in the NFL during Week One. Last year, the JaMarcus Russell-led Raiders gave the Chargers all they could handle in their close Week One loss. So I’m giving Oakland some slack here with Jason Campbell early on. Plus I think Tom Cable with have his boys hungry without the weight of another losing season upon them. Yet.

Factor in Tennessee’s penchant for slow starts in the Vince Young-Kerry Collins platoon era and this matchup is ripe for an upset.

Bengals (+5.5) over PATRIOTS

Fourth road team in a row, and this time I’m picking against Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck. In Foxboro. The good times have to come to end at some point in New England, don’t they? And this year seems like a perfectly good time. The signs are there:

• Wes Welker’s knee injury in Week 17 last year (although, great recovery).
• Blowout loss at home in the first round of the playoffs.
• Ty Warren’s season-ending injury.
• Randy Moss is griping and the season hasn’t even started yet.
• Tom Brady got into a car accident last night.

Look, fate is hard thing to overcome. Like when the Eagles foundation began to crack in the ‘05 preseason (Jerome McDougle’s gunshot wound and T.O.’s driveway workout), I see some similarities in this Patriots team. I think this is the first time since ‘02 — back when the Raiders were marching to their last winning season — that a healthy Tom Brady will be kept out of the playoffs.

Now that you know how unPatriotic I am this year, let’s talk some Bengals. Remember in the mid to early 2000s when we all joked about how funny it would be to have Chad (Johnson) Ochocinco and T.O. on the same team? Didn’t turn out as we hoped because apparently these two guys are bigger geeks than Steve Urkel and Samuel “Screech” Powers. OK, it’s sort of entertaining if you follow them on Twitter, but I think their talent levels no longer warrant the same attention as season’s past. I don’t think either will have a 1,000-yard season. Still though, it gives Carson Palmer multiple options in the passing game.

But the Bengals are not a passing team anymore. Cedric Benson must have learned a lot from Thomas Jones because the former first round pick had to go to a new team to realize his talent. (If you forgot, Jones was once drafted by the Arizona Cardinals but lost his job after sub-par play). That 1251-yard season he had last year is exactly what the Bears thought there were getting when they drafted him — only I’m guessing they were hoping that have happened with him on their team. He’s powerful, runs with purpose, and is one of two reasons I’m expecting a playoff season again for Cincinnati. The other reason is that defense.

I don’t think that the Patriots weak front seven will be able handle Benson, but I think the Bengals defense can stop Brady & co.

Panthers (+7.5) over GIANTS

The call me Jessie James cause they keep sending me road dogs…

Other than the Giants reputation in the media, what’s the reason for this absurd betting line? The Panthers helped close out Giants Stadium by blowing out the G-Men in Week 16, 41-9. Did I mention that DeAngelo Williams didn’t even play in that game? Now they’re spotted more than a touchdown in Week One the following year. Sign me up!

BTW: If Adio Royster has his guys, then Matt Moore is one of my guys. Dude went 4-1 as a starter down the stretch last season and engineered big victories over the Vikings and Giants. Apparently that wasn’t enough for John Fox, who drafted Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen in the second round of this year’s draft. I guess if Moore doesn’t pan out, Fox has his future covered. Oh wait — he’s in the final year of his contact this year? Nevermind. That move made absolutely no sense.

Of course, if Moore craps the bed a la Jake Delhomme…

Falcons (-2.5) over STEELERS

Nice, a road favorite. Guess I should thank Ben Roethlisberger for not knowing “no means no” for this one.

Even though Pittsburgh’s defense could show up in ‘08 form with a healthy (and Defensive Player of the Year-worthy) Troy Polamalu back at safety and Dennis Dixon could make three or four vintage Michael Vickian plays, but I just think Atlanta has enough fire power on both sides of the ball to beat a team down to its third quarterback. Even if it is a team that’s just a season removed from hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

Browns (+2.5) over BUCCANEERS

This is the matchup we’ve all been waiting for, two teams with a combined eight victories last year! For those against an 18-game schedule, witness exhibit A: this game.

One of the funniest subplots of the offseason was how Mike Holmgren and company picked up Jake Delhomme from scrap heap and gave him a big contact. That’s like finding a torn-up coat in the lost and found bin and paying goodwill a few million dollars for it. Still, I like the Browns to creep towards mediocrity this season. We’ll see about the Buccaneers as they seem to be a few years away from anything resembling positive.

Broncos (+2.5) over JAGUARS

The Tim Tebow Bowl!

(If you don’t want to read about Tebow — I don’t blame you if you don’t — skip over this section. There’s just nothing else I can think to talk about for this game.)

I’m interested to see how Jack Bauer–excuse me–Tebow plays if coach Josh McDaniels puts him in the game. At this stage in his career, I think he’s nothing more than a glorified fullback. Of course that’s exactly how Urban Meyer used him in his freshman year at Florida, putting him in for short-yardage situations during their National Championship run. (I’m an unabashed Wildcat formation lover, so I’m rooting for his success in the formation.) Isn’t it ironic that his first pro game occurs in his collegiate backyard? Seriously, why didn’t the Jaguars pick him? Oh yeah, because Josh McDaniels selected him in the first round, when he clearly was a second- or third-round talent.

P.S. I think it’s time we get over the mistake of putting an expansion franchise in Northern Florida and move the team to Los Angeles. Just do it already!

TEXANS (+3.5) over Colts

This is my personal favorite pick of the week. An underachieving home underdog facing one of the NFL’s pillar franchises of the last decade. Sign me up!

I know the Colts often start out seasons with six, 13, or even 14 victories, and we all know that Houston Texans finally got their first winning season last year. Here’s a key stat: Six of the Texans’ seven losses last year were by eight points or less (one score). That’s got to even out when you have a 4800-yard passer behind center and a 1,500-yard receiver split out wide.

But Dr. Sports Fan, isn’t Brian Cushing, last year’s Defensive Rookie of the Year and one of the Texans best defenders, suspended for the first four games, and shouldn’t that negatively affect Houston as they face off against one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks? (Um… yes.) I don’t care. I’m high like Cheech and Chong on the Texans this year, and nobody is convincing me otherwise. At least until they get blown out at home by Peyton Manning.

Gulp.

49ers (-2.5) over SEAHAWKS

The NFC West sucks.

BTW: Think the Niners are kicking themselves for choosing Alex Smith over Rodgers a little bit?

Packers (-1.5) over EAGLES

Just kidding. I can’t pick against the Birds in Week One — as long as Kevin Kolb doesn’t turn into the second coming of Bobby Hoying on us. (Oh please, no. That can’t happen, can it?)

EAGLES (+1.5) over Packers

That looks much better.

Look, I know the Aaron Rodgers-Kevin Kolb matchup at quarterback is a bit one-sided — at least before Kolb takes a meaningful snap as the Birds’ franchise quarterback — but I’m banking on a return to glory for the Eagles defense. Everyone forgets that it was the defense, not Donovan McNabb, that led the team to the 2008 NFC Championship Game. Then came the offseason — which saw the departure of Brian Dawkins, Jim Johnson’s death, and Stewart Bradley’s ACL injury — and the identity of that third-ranked unit was washed away. No matter because Bradley is back, new coordinator Sean McDermott had an offseason to prepare his scheme, and two promising rookies — safety Nate Allen and defensive end Brandon Graham — are in the starting lineup. Can they stop Rodgers and co, maybe not, but all they need to do is hold them to under 30 points. Why? Because the Eagles offense has the ability to put up 31 points on any given Sunday. And they better or the Birds will likely be 0-1 for the first time in three years.

(See how I talked myself into that one.)

RAMS (+3.5) over Cardinals

This pick isn’t so much about the Rams as it is about the Cardinals. You’re telling me that a team that spent all offseason, not to mention several years, grooming Matt Leinart for the starting quarterback job only to release him to go with Derek “What happened after 2007″ Anderson as the number one guy is a team that’s going to be a good team. I’ll believe it when I see it. I’ll take Sam Bradford’s first career start with Steven Jackson behind him over Anderson and the Beanie Wells-Tim Hightower platoon anytime.

Time for Arizona to prove all the experts, who claim that the quarterback is more important than ever in ‘10, wrong.

Cowboys (-3.5) over REDSKINS

Poor Donovan. He spent the last two weeks of ‘09 running for his life from the Dallas pass rush only to start the ‘10 season in the same exact spot. This guy can’t catch a break.

Did you know that the Dallas defense finished last year with back-to-back shutouts after defeating the eventual champion Saints on the road? That’s good because the Dallas offensive line — code-named the “uh o-line” — is missing both its starting tackles from last season. Who will get sacked more in this game, Tony Romo or D-Mac?

Ravens (+3.5) over JETS

Since when did the Ravens ever have top-flight cornerbacks? I know Chris McCallister was once back in the day, but other than him, I can’t think of anyone worthy of a Pro Bowl nod. I think reports of the Baltimore defense’s demise are a bit premature. When Ray Lewis hangs up the pads, we’ll talk. In fact, let’s just watch how the Sanchize does in action against them before I say anything else I may or may not regret.

Chargers (-5.5) over CHIEFS

Will the Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeil holdouts ruin this season for the Chargers before it even begins or can Ryan Matthews reinvigorate the stagnant San Diego ground game? Luckily for Norv Turner, those questions really shouldn’t matter this week against Kansas City. If my prediction holds up, eventual MVP Philip Rivers should be able to handle this one on his own. He can use perennial All-Pro Antonio Gates or superb third-down running back Darren Sproles if he needs reinforcements. I say this because I’m of the opinion that the Chef’s (Wait, I forgot an “I”? Great Googilly Moogilly!) still have another year of cooking to do before they’ll be ready for primetime. I am, however, excited to see Dexter McCluster in action. And Eric Berry. And Todd Haley, but only if he happens to get into a hissy fit on the sidelines.

The wait is finally over, so enjoy Week One everyone!!!