NFL Week 6 Picks: The Reign of Mediocrity in 2010

For years, parity in the NFL was explained with two words: “salary cap”. America’s Game had a socialist economy and — unlike the Soviet Union — the league actually found a way to make it work. Big market teams like the New York Giants and Chicago Bears were playing on an even field financially with smaller market clubs like the Jacksonville Jaguars and Green Bay Packers. The result was one of the best things in sports: any team could win on any given Sunday in the NFL. Parity became so prevalent that it’s nearly impossible to accurately predict Super Bowl teams in the preseason. This is in stark contrast to the MLB, where big market teams — such as the Yankees, Red Sox, and now the Phillies — are obvious World Series favorites.

So gives with the lack of elite teams in an uncapped season? Mediocrity reigns supreme as the 2010 season has thus far been defined by flawed teams. Take those aforementioned Jaguars. In Week 3, Jacksonville was on the wrong end of a 28-3 blowout against the Eagles. One week later, the Jags upset the defending AFC-Champion Colts on an incredible 59-yard field goal by Josh Scobee. So one week this team is headed towards a top-5 draft pick, and the next it’s knocking off one of the NFL’s best teams. That’s the 2010 NFL season in nutshell.

Maybe then 2010 is just one of those transition years when the balance in the NFL shifts, leaving teams on an even keel. It’s possible the absence of a salary cap even played a role in this. Some teams — Chicago, for instance — were able to use their new-found financial advantage to eliminate some talent gaps, while others with more limited resources — i.e. Green Bay — might have more trouble handling injuries with less depth. It makes sense at least logically, but who knows how accurate it is.

Still there have been transition seasons in the NFL before. At the start of every decade, established teams seem a little long in the tooth while forgotten franchises, with youthful talent, begin knocking them off more consistently. Each coach is hoping that his club on the right end of those upswings, while the ones that know their teams are on the downswing are hoping they have the necessary reinforcements to help keep the good times rolling. As always, injuries and misfortune throw some curve balls into the mix.

Take 1991, for instance, when the Washington Redskins went 13-3 and won the Super Bowl with Mark Rypien at quarterback. Rypien was the league’s MVP that season, but he came out of nowhere to do so and soon faded back to obscurity in the ensuing years. This was aided of course by major injuries to a few star quarterbacks (Joe Montana and Randall Cunningham), but Washington sit had a brief run atop the football world. This all occurred between the height of the San Francisco dynasty (a veteran team in need of reinforcements) and the Dallas Mini-Dynasty (a young team not yet seasoned enough for a run at the Lombardi Trophy). The funny thing is the Redskins actually made a dynasty of their own out of winning in down seasons. They won their other Lombardi Trophies in two strike years (‘82 and ‘87) and did so the second time with Doug Williams at quarterback and unknown rookie Timmy Smith at tailback. That’s opportunism at its finest right there, and something that politicians in Washington D.C. could learn from.

Anyway, later on in 1999, two unlikely teams — the Rams and Titans — met in the Super Bowl. The next season, the Champion Baltimore Ravens rode their historic defense to another unlikely Super Bowl matchup against their equally unlikely opponent, the Giants. Neither the Ravens nor the Giants, at least with that nucleus of players, made it back to the promised land after some younger and ultimately more talented teams (Patriots, Colts, and Eagles) matured in the coming seasons.

Now here we are a little over a quarter through the season and we are only getting our first clues to which teams are elite and which are not. Three AFC teams — Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and the Jets — are appear to be ahead of the pack, but each has its question marks at the quarterback position — nothing minor in that. Meanwhile, the NFC is a wide open as ever as almost any team is capable of winning on any given Sunday, excluding the Carolina Panthers of course.

As for how this relates to the Eagles, I view this as only a positive. The NFL in 2010 is a league of average, where even the top teams have question marks at the quarterback position. The optimist in me wonders if Vick — an MVP candidate pre-injury — might be the sleeper of the NFL season. King Vick in the Reign of Mediocrity <– I like the sound of that. Unfortunately, that defense needs to get its act together or Vick’s magic will not be good enough. The point is that the possibility is there. The Eagles can hope for greatness this season.

Or what about McNabb and those Redskins, can they rise again from the ashes of mediocrity? Or will the Giants again rise to the top of the NFC? Or is Baltimore again the team to beat for the title? Maybe Pittsburgh is just in the middle of its own dynasty, ready to add another Lombardi Trophy to an already packed trophy case… and so on. Almost any team can make that argument.

In the Reign of Mediocrity, there are no clear-cut favorites.

NFL Week 6 Picks

Week 5 Picks: 10-4 (BOO-YOW)
Season record: 18-26 (missed Week 2 and 3)
Home teams in CAPS.

CHICAGO (-6.5) over Seattle

Chicago was one of the franchises that benefits the most from the un-capped year, and the Bears threw a lot of money around in the offseason to woo alpha-male Julius Peppers. If Cutler doesn’t throw four interceptions — still a possibility — it’s hard to imagine the Bears aren’t at least a touchdown better than the Seahawks. Speaking of Seattle, this is a big week for Pete Carroll. Good NFL coaches have their teams ready after the bye week. If Carroll hopes to mimmick his success in the college ranks, he’ll have to do so by taking care of business on the road after a bye week.

Prove to me you’re for real, Seattle, because I don’t trust you to win on the road. Not yet.

NEW ENGLAND (-2.5) over Baltimore

This has revenge game written all over it. The Ravens embarrassed the Patriots in Foxboro last January to the tune of a 33-14 blowout victory. These may not be the Patriots of last decade, but Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are still in town, and I don’t think they take kindly to embarrassing blowout losses. See 2003 season series with the Buffalo Bills.

Stated in another way: Prove to me you’re a legitimate Super Bowl contender, Baltimore. Championship teams win tough games like this one the road, and something tells me that New England will not let Ray Rice and company rush for 234 yards again. So Joe Flacco will likely need to win this one with his arm.

GIANTS (-10.5) over Detroit

This line may seem a bit high at first glance, but I think it’s dead-on. The Giants are firing on all cylinders while Detroit may have shot its wad in last week’s blowout win over the Rams. Even though I’m picking against them this week, I am nonetheless impressed by this Lions team. Despite losing its starting quarterback in Week 1, Detroit nearly started 3-2 against a fairly difficult schedule (Chicago, Philly, Minnesota, Green Bay, Rams). It speaks to how far the Lions have gone after years being talent-challenged under the historically inept Matt Millen years.

This pick is more about how I feel about the Giants, who appear to be playing some of the best football in the NFL right now. Their embarrassment of the Bears last Sunday night, which reminded me of the Winston Justice Experience at left tackle in ‘07 when Osi Umenyiora had six of the Giants’ NFL-record 12 sacks off Donovan McNabb in another Week 4 Sunday Night Football game, and last week’s demolition of the Texans in Houston were each major statements. Looks like Tom Coughlin wasn’t just spewing coach-speak when he said the better team lost after New York’s Week 3 defeat at the hands of Tennessee.

Also, as crazy as this sounds, I think it’s time we all stop dumping on Eli Manning. OK! OK! I didn’t mean it’s time for us Eagles fans to stop saying that he sucks or anything like that. What I meant to say is that Manning should now officially be recognized by neutral observers as one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks. I felt calling him that in the past — save for his uncharacteristically steady play in the ‘07 playoffs — was a bit premature. Congrats, Giants fans, for an event seven years in the making!

Atlanta (+1.5) over PHILLY

The Eagles defense is a bit of a liability right now. The Falcons just have too much balance on offense for the inconsistent, we-can-shut-down-your-ground-game-or-passing-game-just-not-both Eagles defense. If Mike Vick were starting, he might be able to overcome it. And while Kevin Kolb isn’t a liability, he isn’t a game-changer either. A healthy and effective Vick at quarterback could swing the tide in Philly’s favor.

PITTSBURGH (-13.5) over Cleveland

This line can’t really be high enough. The odds-makers could get college football on us, and I’d still take Pittsburgh. Cleveland is throwing a rookie quarterback in Colt McCoy in the lineup against perhaps the NFL’s best pass defense. A rusty Ben Roethlisberger or not, the Steelers should win this one several times over. By the way, is it just me or does a Rusty Roethlisberger sound like one of those goofy “Dirty Sanchez” type things? I think I’ll stop here before I say anything I might will later regret. Anyway, like I said before, I digress…

McCoy’s first-ever NFL start could get ugly quick, rusty trombone — I mean Roethlisberger — aside.

Miami (+1.5) over GREEN BAY

Miami is coming off a bye week, and Green Bay is coming off a flat overtime loss to Washington. I think the Dolphins can steal one here from an injury-plagued Packers team.

San Diego (-8.5) over ST. LOUIS

I trust the Chargers to win this game on the road, but there aren’t many other places I’d feel comfortable saying that. Wide receiver Mark Clayton’s injury is nothing short of devastating to this young and promising Rams team. He clicked instantly with Sam Bradford, and I think his loss will set back the offense at least briefly.

Of course, San Diego’s special teams could crap the bed for the third time this season…

TAMPA BAY (+5.5) over New Orleans

We know two things here.

1. The Buccaneers can play.
2. The Saints are having trouble covering the spread.

Now I’m not saying the Bucs will win this game outright, but they should at least make this one very interesting.

HOUSTON (-4.5) over Kansas City

Don’t let this pick fool you; the Chiefs are for real. I just like the matchup here for Houston. The Texans’ weakness is pass defense whereas Kansas City’s weakness is passing offense. So that’s a wash. And as good as the Chiefs defense is, I can’t see them holding back a Texans offense that can beat them on the ground or in the air.  Not to mention the fact that the Texans got embarrassed last week at home. I don’t see Houston coming out flat two weeks in a row, do you?

Oakland (+6.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

Why not?

Jets (-3.5) over BRONCOS

Still not sold on Denver. The Jets have to be too good on defense to allow a one-dimensional passing offense to beat them, right?

Dallas (+1.5) over MINNESOTA

Lots of things going on in this game.

• Rematch of last year’s divisional game.
• Both teams are fading from the playoff picture.
• Wade Phillips under fire — at least from the media.
• Brett Favre penis-gate.
• Randy Moss trade.
• Chilly.

If you’re a gambling person, I would stay away from this game. Personally, I’m playing for a tie.

Indianapolis (-3.5) over WASHINGTON

This is Washington’s shit-or-get-off-the-pot game. Either the Redskins are a good team and make a good game of it, or they’re posers and will get blown out by Peyton Manning at home. There’s really no in-between here. (By the way, that’s two poop references in this post if you’re counting.)

Tennessee (-3.5) over JACKSONVILLE

Ditto for the Jaguars. If Jacksonville has any postseason aspirations, it needs to beat the Titans at home. While they might play well, I’m not expecting a win for the home crowd, not with Chris Johnson in the national spotlight. But if there’s any team that can prove me wrong, it’s the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Reign of Mediocrity.