Don’t Write Off The Dodgers Without Manny

By Jason Branch
JACK BAUER OF ALL SPORTS

54-54.

The 2008 Dodgers’ record prior to the Manny Ramirez trade on July 31, 2008.

30-24.

That was Dodgers’ record after the arrival of Manny Ramirez (not including the postseason).

Jack will always remember when Manny tossed him that ball... or was it a syringe?

The Los Angeles Dodgers without Ramirez were an average team in a below-average division last season. This season, the Dodgers are off to a major-league-best 21-8 record. Manny certainly has been a big part of that, and he will be dearly missed. As a Dodger fan and someone who frequented many games last season in Dodger Stadium (as well as Opening Day this year in Petco Park), the contrast in the energy and attendance before and after the arrival of Manny was incredible. He was an instant fan favorite and still is, even leading the Dodgers to designate two sections in left field as “Mannywood” this season.

Fans and the Dodgers’ front office are the biggest losers of Manny’s recent positive test for performance-enhancing drugs and subsequent 50-game suspension. Dodgers Stadium is likely to see a drop-off in attendance and overall energy in the crowd without Manny in the lineup, but the 2009 version of the Dodgers, even without Manny until July 3, will be fine.

Without Manny, the Dodgers this season will be the same story as last season, an average team with a great manager in a below-average division. The difference this season is that the Dodgers will begin their campaign without Manny with a six-game cushion, rather than playing the entire first two-thirds of the season two games out of first place, as they did in 2008.

Joe Torre, the manager-extraordinaire of the Dodgers (Hank Steinbrenner, if you’re reading right now, I know you agree with me. No disrespect to Joe Girardi, but he is not Torre.) will keep the Dodgers ship sailing even without Manny. He dealt with the vicious New York media for 12 seasons, the calamity that is the Yankees’ front office, the A-Rod situation, and the Roger Clemens situation. He will, as he has been able to the past 13 seasons as a major-league manager, find a way to keep the Dodgers  together despite lacking the goofy demeanor and reliable bat that made Manny a clubhouse favorite.

Even without Ramirez, the Dodgers still have a lineup that strikes fear in the heart of the opponents. The development of the Dodgers’ young core of batters — James Loney (.276 BA, 20 RBI), Matt Kemp (.275 BA, 17 RBI), and Andre Ethier (.317 BA, 27 RBI) — has picked up where it left off after the NLCS last season. No doubt, having Ramirez in the heart of the lineup boosted the production of everyone around him, but these other three young hitters are another year older, and with that comes more poise. I don’t expect to see a significant drop-off in their production.

And in front of Loney, Kemp, and Ethier is a platoon of Rafael Furcal, Orlando Hudson, and Juan Pierre occupying the top two slots in Torre’s lineup card. Whatever combination of these three it is on a given night, the Dodgers will have a top of the order as good as anyone’s in all of Major League Baseball. At this early point in the season, Hudson, not Ramirez, is the MVP of the Dodgers, if not all of baseball, batting .342 with 17 RBI, .964 OPS, and 23 runs out of the number two spot.

I haven’t even mentioned Russell Martin yet, an All Star the last two seasons, who is off to a meager .242 start but bound to improve, and the veteran Casey Blake, who will not bat .225 the entire season. Even without Manny in the lineup, this team has eight solid pieces of lumber that can carry the load and maintain a team batting average that right now is tops in the NL at .283.

The last, and possibly most important, reason why the Dodgers will survive until July 3 without Manny: The NL West BLOWS, period. Sure, it is still early in the 2009 season, but the division’s record (not including the Dodgers) is a dismal 50-62 . The San Francisco Giants currently sit in second place at 14-13, thanks to pitching sensation Tim Lincecum and an overachieving 35-year-old catcher named Bengie Molina. The Giants have improved the past couple of seasons, but this team is still far away from contending for the NL “Worst” crown.

In third place are the San Diego Padres at 13-16, and this record is inflated by the Padres overachieving early and starting the season 9-3. The Arizona Diamondbacks are better than their 12-17 start and are likely to be the only team to challenge the Dodgers this season, with or without Manny. As for the Rockies, well they are still the Rockies after the anomaly that was their 2007 NL Champion season (Editor’s Note: Those bastards!).

The reality is that the NL West has not improved as a whole over last season when 84 wins was enough to win the division. I do not intend to downplay the addition of Manny, which was a huge boost to the Dodgers’ team and fan base, and made all the difference for the Dodgers in the postseason. But in last year’s regular season, the Dodgers were only six games over .500 during their two months with him. The Dodgers won’t continue to reach a .724 winning percentage without him, but they will still win more than half of their games between now and July 3. The Dodgers were bound to cool off anyway, given their hot start and scrappy pitching staff, which has benefitted from pitching all but four games against the aforementioned NL “Worst.”

And for those who want to push the panic button and jump ship, I remind you, Manny will be back July 3 having only missed 50 games out of a 162-game season. By choosing not to appeal the positive test and suspension, Manny will be back 28 days before the day on which he arrived last season. He’s helped to get the Dodgers off to a 21-8 start and six games clear of the second place, and will be back in time help the Dodgers make the push for the playoffs into August and September, and … possibly October?

It will be a struggle for the Dodgers in the 50 games without Manny because the schedule gets tougher with games against the AL West, NL Central and NL East (not to mention that the Dodgers’ pitching is still suspect). But the rest of their division will play these teams also, and the Dodgers are still the best team in a lousy division.

On July 3, I expect the Dodgers to still be in first place in the NL West, with a record around 46-33. I predict they will still play .500 baseball without Manny, which is exactly what they did last season. I see this team as approximately equal to last year’s squad. The improvement in the young offensive core this season makes up for the pitching, which is inferior to the 2008 staff.

As for Bill Plaschke, the L.A. Times writer who said as a panelist during Around the Horn on Thursday afternoon that Manny should never return in a Dodgers uniform, Jack “Bauer” of All Sports has this to say to Plaschke:

Do you really think the Dodgers would not bring Manny back, considering the 21-8 record with him, Dodgers Stadium’s average of 42,815 fans per game thus far in this economy, and the time spent in the offseason by the front office to bring him back? Come on Bill, you sound like Woody Paige! Manny is beloved by Dodgers fans — and will still be when he returns to the lineup — and moves merchandise. The Dodgers can’t afford to not keep him, even if they were to consider it, and need him to take the next step this season, which would be reaching the World Series.

(Do I hear any support out there for a spot on Around the Horn?)

Chavez Ravine will be Mannywood once again on July 3, and expect the Dodgers to still be in first place in the NL West when that time comes.

Tags: 50-game suspension, Los Angeles Dodgers, manny ramirez