Does Jack Know Mock Drafts?
By Jason Branch
JACK OF ALL SPORTS
Let’s see if I know Jack about mock drafts
I do not follow college football that much, nor much of the draft hype for that matter, but I of course will be watching Saturday as it is football and the unofficial start of the NFL, which we all love as sports fans. There is little drama with the No. 1 pick this year, but the draft status of Mark Sanchez is interesting and entertaining. He’s the undisputed No. 2 highest-rated QB in the draft, but all the “experts” are befuddled as to where he may go, as high as four to as low as 12.
As a part of a friendly competition among writers at Taking Back Sports for Draft Guru status, I am submitting my mock draft for everyone to see. Feel free to mock (pun intended) my picks, call me a moron, or whatnot below. I am not an expert, just a fan like you, who is trying to have a little fun with this. Fresh off of my success in calling the Madden Cover (well half-success, but I had the other half as a Contender), maybe I can ride the wave of success in making some interesting mock draft picks that challenge all the “experts” out there.
A somewhat unique approach I’ve taken, I’ve marked certain draft positions with “**” where I think we might see trade activity Saturday afternoon.
1. Matthew Stafford- QB- Detroit Lions
All reports indicate he should be signed by draft day, and this team has some serious rebuilding to do after winning zero games last year. QBs are who you build teams around.
2. Jason Smith- OT- St. Louis Rams
With the top-rated QB off the board, look for the Rams to make the safest pick possible here by taking one of the highest-rated offensive lineman in this year’s draft and address the hole left by the departed Orlando Pace. With Ravens cast-off Kyle Boller on the depth chart behind Bulger, I don’t see the Rams moving back and hoping Mark Sanchez is still in the Green Room.
3. Aaron Curry- LB- Kansas City Chiefs
Only the lowly Lions’ defense was more dreadful last season, and being mentioned in the same sentence as the 2008 Lions is a bad thing. New head man Todd Haley inherits an O-Line that allowed the 12th-most sacks last year and comes from the O-Coordinator job in Arizona, but he’s got Matt Cassel to build the offense around. Time to address the defense.
4. Eugene Monroe- OT-Seattle Seahawks
Here’s where the draft starts to get interesting. Matt Hasselbeck should return healthy this year, and Seneca Wallace and Charlie Frye return to back him up. No reason for Seattle to reach with the No. 4 pick on Mark Sanchez. Rather, with viable receiving weapons Deion Branch, Nate Burleson and T.J. Houshmandzedeh on the team and a strong D when its healthy, look for the Seahawks to upgrade an O-Line that surrendered 36 sacks last season.
5. Tyson Jackson-DE-Cleveland Browns
The big question here is whether Braylon Edwards be gone by the time the Browns are on the clock and, if so, would Cleveland believe his replacement should be the top draft priority. Josh Cribbs, an impressive young speedster, is still behind Edwards, along with veterans Joe Jurevicius and Donte’ Stallworth (for now, although jail time is possible for his DUI case). Regardless, Cleveland’s defense is its biggest problem as I see it. The squad ranked 26th overall last year, 30th in sacks, and surrendered an astronomical 151.9 rushing ypg. The Army could’ve driven a tank through the Browns’ D-Line last year and not run over anyone, and my 79-year-old grandma would’ve had time in the pocket against the Browns to find someone open. Look for Cleveland to address these issues early.
6. Andre Smith-OT-Cincinnati Bengals
Poor Carson Palmer suffered through some serious brutality last season, getting sacked 11 times in only four games before he had to hang it up early last year. His understudies combined to go down another 40 times throughout the season. See a pattern? The Bungles’ O-Line stinks. Only the 49ers and Lions allowed more total sacks, and you read what I wrote before about being mentioned in the same sentence as the Lions. For heaven’s sake, get Carson some protection with the best lineman left on the board. He’s got enough weapons, he just needs some protection so maybe he can stay healthy a full season.
7. Michael Crabtree-WR-Oakland Raiders
Ah the Raiders. Good enough for me last year because they were able to beat the Bucs, allowing the Eagles to crush Dallas and earn a playoff berth, but certainly not good enough for Al Davis and the Raider Nation. There is hope in the East Bay though, thanks to a strong corps of running backs in Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. The Raiders also have a young defense that, while ranked only 27th, really played well overall, especially at the end of the season, considering its offense was almost dead-last in time of possession. With the top three offensive linemen off the board here, take advantage of Crabtree slipping and get JaMarcus Russell/Jeff Garcia a legit deep weapon to throw to.
8. **Brain Orakpo-DE-Jacksonville Jaguars**
The Jags defense was in the middle of the pack last year, but it is very young and should improve. On offense, the Jags could benefit from another WR and another lineman to go with newly signed Tra Thomas. Quarterback is a potential issue, but the Jags signed undrafted rookie Paul Smith last year as their third option. With Smith on the roster, I think the Jags are likely to address the D, specifically the 20th-ranked sack effort last season, rather than go for Sanchez if they in fact pick at No. 8. You heard from “Jack” first: The Jags’ No. 8 pick is an obvious trade target, with no glaring holes in need of immediate attention and Sanchez likely to go somewhere between the eighth and 12th picks.
9. B.J. Raji-DT-Green Bay Packers
The Pack needs the most help on defense and is pretty set on offense with Aaron Rodgers at QB, Ryany Grant at RB, and a solid corps of receivers that includes Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and a bunch of other young guys. Green Bay’s best option here is to address the defensive line, which was M.I.A. much of last season, ranking 26th in rushing ypg allowed. Raji is the best interior D-lineman on the board.
10. **Michael Oher-OT-San Francisco 49ers**
This team rallied behind the tough love of Mike Singletary to finish 7-9. Alex Smith is approaching bust status, and backup Shaun Hill performed strong down the stretch, going 5-3 as the starter to end the season. He had a QB rating greater than 90 in six of the nine games he played. The Niners’ biggest problem is in the trenches. No team, not even the Lions, allowed more sacks last season than the 49ers. The defense was slightly below average, but came together late. Shaun Hill is only 29 and hasn’t taken much punishment in his NFL career as primarily a backup player. If Hill is Singletary’s man, he can last for a while and buy the Niners time on drafting a QB. Look for the Niners to address that dreadful O-Line early, but they are a potential trade target with the top three offensive lineman already off the board and Oher likely to be available five to eight picks later. At the No. 10 pick, plenty of teams behind Frisco are jockeying for position to land the still-available Mark Sanchez.
11. Aaron Maybin-DE-Buffalo
With newly acquired T.O., Buffalo doesn’t have an immediate need at WR. The O-line was average in both the pass- and run-blocking departments last year, and the Bills defense was also an average 14th in the NFL. As one might expect based on these figures, the Bills finished about average: 7-9. With plenty of weapons for Trent Edwards and a serviceable O-Line, the next step for the Bills is to upgrade the defense. Defense still wins championships in this league, and the offensive combo of Edwards-Lynch-Owens alone will not move the Bills out of the AFC East basement.
12. Robert Ayers-DE-Denver Broncos
This defense stunk last year, period. Only the Chiefs and Lions defenses were worse (Seattle gets a pass in my book, due to injury; neither of the other teams here does). Kyle Orton is an obvious downgrade from Jay Cutler, but he’s shown signs recently that he can be an NFL quarterback. If the Broncos want to win the AFC West crown, they better address the defense at No. 12. Mark Sanchez is not the solution to the Broncos’ problem. With three quality QBs in their division (Philip Rivers, Cassel, and Garcia), Denver better address its lack of a pass rush.
13. **Jeremy Maclin-WR-Washington Redskins**
Dan Snyder has been in the news again, reportedly interested in Mark Sanchez. I still have him on my board, but Jason Campbell isn’t a slouch. I think Sanchez would ultimately be an upgrade for the ‘Skins, but they’ve got a big problem that I think will keep them from taking Sanchez: Their next pick isn’t until the middle of the third round. That said, I ultimately look for the ‘Skins to draft a player that can help them immediately in the tough NFC East: Jeremy Maclin. With T.O. and Plaxico Burress out of the picture, Maclin, along with Antwan Randle-El, Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas, could combine to give the ‘Skins the most dangerous WR corps in the division. However, this would create a glut of WRs on the depth chart and only an average QB to find them, and we are dealing with Dan Snyder here. He’s capable of anything, so I’ll mark pick No. 13 as potentially being traded.
14. Malcolm Jenkins-CB-New Orleans
The Saints were the Aints on defense last season. Their air assault was tops, but the running game struggled, ranking 28th. There are plenty of RBs on the depth chart, though, so I don’t think the Saints need to draft one. Fixing the defense needs to be the top priority, especially in a division that suddenly is among the toughest in the league and can put up points faster than Dan Snyder can spend money.
15. Brian Cushing-LB-Houston Texans
To the surprise of many, the Texans were third-best in the league at moving the ball last season. But only 22nd-best at stopping other teams from moving it. This defense is in need of a quality, beefy LB in the middle to complement the suddenly awesome Mario Williams on the line. At 6-foot-3, 255 pounds, Cushing fits the bill.
16. **Rey Maualuga-LB-San Diego Chargers**
Living in San Diego and watching the Chargers play the past few seasons, this one is obvious. The Bolts’ secondary is as dreadful as Qualcomm Stadium. Besides Antonio Cromartie, their DBs are as bad as their front seven is good. This team is in dire need of a DB, but at No. 16, it would be a reach to take one this year. Rather, the Chargers are more likely to address the LB position, which is suddenly a concern with Shawne Merriman coming off ACL surgery. I personally think their best move may be to trade back for value with no top DBs outside of Jenkins projected to go in Round 1.
17. **Mark Sanchez-QB-Jet**
I’ll admit it’s a Stretch Armstrong-level reach to have Sanchez the third Trojan drafted, but that’s how I see it without projecting specific trades that may happen (I thoroughly expect a trade involving Mark Sanchez to occur, and I have the Jets as a prime suspect). This would be a perfect fit for the Jets, who just lost Brett Favre to retirement (he did retire, right?). Sure, the Jets have second-year QBs Eric Ainge and Brett Ratliff on the roster, but they’d be drooling at this opportunity, if that’s how things play out. However, the subject of recent draft trade talks, the Jets may very well end up with Sanchez, but via a much higher pick than #17.
18. Josh Freeman-QB-Denver Broncos
The Broncos’ second pick in the round is a tough one for me. They still have work to do on a horrible defense, but Orton and Chris Simms are suspect at QB. Josh Freeman is rapidly gaining popularity and has a quality arm and good legs. First year head coach Josh McDaniels already passed on Sanchez on my projection, but might be inclined to take a QB here and take advantage of the opportunity to mold a young mind. If nothing else, this move would get the attention of Orton, as if he isn’t feeling enough pressure to fill the shoes of a top-five QB.
19. Darrius Heyward-Bey-WR-Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After an epic collapse of Denver Broncos-2008-version proportions and the departure of Jeff Garcia, this team has some work to do to remain competitive in the NFC South. The defense is still solid. I see the Bucs’ best option here as getting another playmaker for the offense to help out a mediocre QB group (Derrick Ward was a start).
20. Eben Britton-OT-Detroit Lions
They’ve addressed the QB position, but there are many more holes to fill. The D blows, but Ernie Sims may develop into a pretty good anchor on that side of the ball. Obviously there are many needs for an 0-16 team, but I think the best move for Detroit is to get some protection for high-money man Stafford. O-Line is the safest draft pick historically, and the Lions franchise is historically cheap, not to mention that the city is in shambles with the economy. The best way to get to fill the seats and make money for continued rebuilding is to develop an offense.
21. **Brandon Pettigrew-TE-Philadelphia Eagles**
All the pundits have Knowshon Moreno here, but I say not so fast. Historically, there is always great depth at running back and the Eagles are among the best at finding diamonds in the rough. I agree the Birds need another RB, but they can wait. TE is a much bigger need for them, with L.J. Smith departed. Celek broke out in the playoffs, but Andy Reid seems committed to running more this season (no, that’s not a typo), and Celek can’t block very well. Pettigrew is the best at his position in the draft and can do both. But this is the Eagles, and they are a prime suspect to move back, as they have the past two years, if they think they can get Pettigrew later. They may also trade this pick away for Anquan Boldin or Braylon Edwards, considering they have lots of cap space and 10 draft picks this year.
I’m tired and have already spent a lot of hours on this, trying to bring fans quality and entertaining analysis. As an Eagles fan, I have little interest in the remainder of the first after this pick, if the Eagles do in fact make a pick at No. 21. Thus, I only offer analysis for two-thirds of round one.
If a RB is not taken in the first 21 picks, Sanchez is on the board until No. 17 and I have correctly marked trade targets, I will likely have done enough to earn the title of Draft Guru at Taking Back Sports without picking 22-32.
Cheers, and happy unofficial start to the NFL!
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