With Oswalt, the NL is not worthy of the Phillies
The prevailing winds have changed in the National League with Houston ace Roy Oswalt heading to Philadelphia.
After spending the first half of the season resembling the team from Major League 2, the reigning two-time NL champions have finally woken up from their midsummer slump. The only person happier than the average Phillies fan is general manager Ruben Amaro Jr., who just got the entire tri-state area off his back for the first time since trading away Cliff Lee. Trading for Oswalt was like buying a warranty for job-protection. You’ve got until the next losing streak or Oswalt’s first bad start until you start getting heat again from the fans — whichever comes first!
Since none of the other division leaders and wild-card contenders (Atlanta, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Los Angeles, San Diego or San Francisco) have really separated from the pack and dominated, the 2010 Phillies are in position to make their patented late-season run to the playoffs.
With a 1-2-3 punch of uber ace Roy Halladay, 2008 postseason MVP Cole Hamels, and Oswalt, the rest of the National League probably feels like Wayne and Garth would right now:
“We’re not worthy!”
“We’re not worthy!”
Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. If we’ve learned anything from the first half of the season, it’s that the rest of the league will not bow down to Philadelphia. The Phillies were just two games over .500 before their seven-game winning streak, which preceded the Oswalt deal, so another dry spell from the injury-plagued offense could send the team back in the weeds.
If any of these four things happen, the Phillies will be looking at another deep run into the playoffs.
1. The Phils’ starting lineup gets healthy and starts scoring runs.
Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Placido Polanco, and now Shane Victorino have all spent time on the disabled list. When the first three spots in your lineup are constantly in flux, it’s hard for guys like Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Raul Ibanez to drive in runs. Forget all these injuries, where would the Phillies be if Howard weren’t hitting over .300 with 23 home runs and 81 RBI? To think what his number would/could be if he were facing more pitchers with runners on base…
Let’s get him some help. Get well soon, Chase and Shane!
The wild card in this whole situation is Dominic Brown. He sure looked like an impact player in his Major League debut last night. If injuries force Victorino out or Werth and Ibanez struggle down the stretch, Brown looms as the type of rookie that could ignite a team in the postseason. For everyone that doesn’t think a rookie can have a postseason impact, see Hernandez, Livan in the 1997 playoffs.
2. Cole Hamels puts the 2009 season behind him.
Last year he went 10-11 with a 4.32 ERA and followed that mediocrity with a 1-2 record and an ERA over 7.50 in the playoffs. He was the Least Valuable Player for the team in the postseason. If the Cole Hamels from the 2008 postseason (4-0, 1.80 ERA) was picked up in a DeLorean by Marty McFly and Doc Brown and replaced his “other self” in the ‘09 playoffs, the Phillies ride two legendary pitching performances (along with Cliff Lee’s 4-0 record and 1.58 ERA) to a World Series victory over the Yankees. I’m convinced, and there’s nothing you can do to change my mind about it.
Hamels’ 7-7 record and 3.48 ERA this season suggest that the inconsistencies that plagued him in ‘09 are not as much of a problem in ‘10. True, he’s had his ups and downs, but the optimist inside of me takes his recent dominance to be the pitcher we can expect to team with the Roys for baseball’s best 1-2-3 punch.
3. Brad Lidge finds his ‘08 “self”.
If Hamels was the LVP of the ‘09 playoffs, Lidge was the LVP of the ‘09 regular season.
Saving myself the dread of listing his 2009 numbers, one whacky inning about summed up his season. Staring their eventual 3-1 series deficit right in the face, the Phillies came back from the dead to tie game four of the World Series with a solo home run by Pedro Feliz with two outs in the bottom of the eighth inning. Lidge came in and got two quick outs in the top of the ninth, only to walk Johnny Damon after a very long at-bat. Damon eventually stole second and third (when Lidge didn’t cover it in the Mark Teixeira shift), and one batter later, Alex Rodriguez’s huge double all but ended the World Series.
Ryan “Mad Dog” Madsen and Jose “I am older than my passport says” Contreras can’t handle the ninth, so please, we need some of the ‘08 magic, Brad!
4. The Phillies and the fans stop bickering.
The honeymoon for the magical ‘08 World Series Champions seems to have come to an end, and Phillies fans have taken the old boos out of the closet as the slump went from games to weeks to months in July. A lot of the players on this team have not really faced the boos on a regular basis — something few Phillies, maybe ever, can truly say — and frankly, it shows. Victorino and Werth have each had moments that even a neutral observer might say, “Dude, you play in Philly. Deal with it.” So we’ll have to forgive them if they aren’t handling the fans’, um, constructive criticism very well.
At the same time, can you blame the fans? This Phillies team has not yet met the enormous expectations that come with being the two-time defending NL champs. Citizens Bank Park has been sold out every game for over a year now, so the fans have done their part. The only nine people who haven’t shown up consistently are the nine men in the Phillies starting lineup.
There is an important equation everyone seems to have forgotten: Philly fans + Mediocre play = Booing. Call it the Philly fan theorem, call if whatever, but you will hear booing if those first two conditions are met. Every time.
By the way, this equation also applies for New York fans. Unfortunately, there is some unknown rule that says announcers and journalists can only talk about Philly fans booing. So screw it, we’re calling this the Philly/New York fan theorem. Take that one, Big Apple!
Of course if the Phillies have truly turned the corner and finish the season on a roll, we won’t have to worry about how the fans are treating the players. Charlie Manuel’s team always seems to hit their stride in July and August and become an unstoppable force in September and October. For some reason, this team has a knack for delivering when it counts.
From ‘07 to ‘09, no team seemed to have more classic moments. The four-game sweep of the Mets at the end of August ‘07, Brett Myers and the fans battle for a walk against CC Sabathia, Victorino’s grand slam two batters later, Matt Stairs’ no-doubt-about-it home run against Jonathan Broxton, Howard’s game-winning double against the Rockies, Rollins’ game-winning double against Broxton, and Cliff Lee’s no-look catch in New Yankee Stadium — these moments propelled the Phils along in their last three postseasons runs.
Who will deliver this time?
Will it be a familiar face, such as Utley or Howard; a fresh one, like Halladay; or the new kids on the block, Brown and Oswalt? Or will another team’s player own it, like Kaz Matsui’s grand slam off Kyle Lohse in the ‘07 NLDS or A-Rod’s game-winning double off Lidge in the World Series?
One thing we do know is that, on paper, no team in the NL can match the talent on the Phillies roster after the Oswalt trade. Even the American League’s best, like New York, would have a hard time with Philly’s three aces.
I wonder what the late George Steinbrenner would think about that…
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